原油、燃料油日报：地缘缓和持续施压油价，关注俄乌首脑会谈-20250820

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. Upside is constrained by weakening marginal demand, while downside is supported by short - term geopolitical premiums. Supply - side factors and demand - side concerns, along with the uncertainty of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, lead to a lack of continuous impetus in the capital market [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - On August 19, the closing price of the domestic SC crude oil futures main contract was 484.2 yuan/barrel, down 0.47% from the previous trading day. The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures remained flat at $62.58/barrel and $66.46/barrel respectively. The spreads of SC to Brent and WTI narrowed by $0.35. The SC continuous - to - third spread changed from contango to backwardation, with a decline of 268.18% [2]. 2. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes Supply - Geopolitical conflicts and producer policies dominate supply disruptions. Oil transportation from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Russian Friendship Pipeline was briefly interrupted. Angola plans to cut exports to 994,000 barrels per day in October. The Volgograd refinery of Russia's Lukoil was suspended due to an attack, which may suppress Russia's refined oil export capacity. India's July imports of Russian crude oil decreased, but state - owned refineries turned to Middle Eastern or American oil sources, which may indirectly support OPEC+ export shares [3]. Demand - The seasonal demand peak is nearing its end. The decline in US API gasoline inventories narrowed (- 956,000 barrels), and refined oil inventories increased, indicating weakening travel demand. The US natural gas price dropped to a nine - month low, which may suppress the demand for fuel oil for power generation. The refinery operating rate increased marginally, but its support for oil prices was limited [3]. Inventory - US API data showed that in the week ending August 15, crude oil inventories decreased by 2.417 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.587 million barrels), the decline in Cushing inventories narrowed to 112,000 barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 535,000 barrels. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4.767 million barrels, with no short - term delivery pressure [3]. 3. Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. The upside is limited by weakening marginal demand, and the downside is supported by short - term geopolitical premiums. Supply - side factors such as infrastructure attacks and OPEC+ production cuts provide bottom support, while demand - side issues like seasonal weakness in US gasoline consumption and India's import structure adjustment raise doubts about the actual digestion capacity of the market. The repeated expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks intensify market wait - and - see sentiment [4]. 4. Industry Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - Futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent changed on August 19 compared to August 18. Spot prices of various crude oil types also had different changes. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI had corresponding fluctuations. Other assets like the US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and RMB exchange rate also showed changes. Inventory data of US commercial crude oil, Cushing inventories, and strategic reserves had different trends, and the US refinery operating rate and crude oil processing volume also changed [6]. Fuel Oil - Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil, as well as spot prices of various fuel oil types, had different changes. Spreads such as Singapore's high - low sulfur spread and China's high - low sulfur spread also fluctuated. Inventory data of Platts and various regions' fuel oil had corresponding trends [7]. 5. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Supply - India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased in July. The oil supply from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Russian Friendship Pipeline was briefly interrupted. The US plans to increase tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil. Angola will cut oil exports to 994,000 barrels per day in October. The Volgograd refinery of Russia's Lukoil was attacked and suspended operations [8][9][10]. Demand - Sinopec (Henan) Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. increased its registered capital from 10 million RMB to about 1.84 billion RMB, with an increase of 18334% [11]. Inventory - US API inventory data for the week ending August 15 showed changes in crude oil, refined oil, gasoline, and other inventories. US natural gas futures dropped to a nine - month low. Domestic crude oil futures prices fluctuated slightly, and the warehouse receipts of various futures remained unchanged [12][13]. Market Information - The US has held separate peace talks with some European countries and Ukraine about the Russia - Ukraine issue, but direct talks between Russia and Ukraine have not taken place, and the cease - fire agreement has not made actual progress. Oil prices are expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations [14]. 6. Industry Chain Data Charts - The content provides various data charts related to the oil industry, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventory data [15][17][19].