Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The urea market opened higher and moved higher today, but declined in the afternoon and closed down. The spot price was raised due to yesterday's sharp futures increase, but market transactions were limited after the futures turned negative. The fundamentals showed little fluctuation, with the urea factory's production increasing last week and remaining stable this week. Domestic demand was insufficient, and the urea factory's inventory was at a five - year high, restricting price increases. The market sentiment cooled after yesterday's rally, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [1] Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened higher and moved higher today, but declined in the afternoon and closed down. The spot price was raised due to yesterday's sharp futures increase, but market transactions were limited after the futures turned negative. The factory's small - particle urea ex - factory price in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1700 - 1740 yuan/ton. Domestic demand was insufficient, and the urea factory's inventory was at a five - year high, restricting price increases. The market sentiment cooled after yesterday's rally, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1793 yuan/ton, moved higher, declined in the afternoon and closed at 1776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73%. The trading volume was 208,609 lots, a decrease of 4,424 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 4,156 lots, and short positions increased by 3,123 lots [2] - Spot: Affected by yesterday's sharp futures increase, today's spot price was raised, but market transactions were limited after the futures turned negative. The factory's small - particle urea ex - factory price in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1700 - 1740 yuan/ton [1][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot price rose, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at 4 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton [8] - Supply: On August 20, 2025, the national daily urea output was 189,800 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the operating rate was 80.81% [10] - Enterprise Inventory: As of August 20, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 6.95%. The pre - sale order days were 6.06 days, a decrease of 0.23 days from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66% [13]
情绪降温，小幅回落
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-08-20 09:41