HTSC·2025-08-20 10:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported lower-than-expected performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 97.5 billion yuan (up 5.0% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.16 billion yuan (down 4.4% year-on-year) [1][4] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.166 yuan per share, representing a payout ratio of 45.5% [1] - The long-term value reassessment of the company is viewed positively, with expectations for dual growth in earnings and dividends [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's natural gas retail volume increased by 2.2% year-on-year to 16.67 billion cubic meters, with industrial volume up 8.0% but commercial and residential volumes down by 1.5% and 3.6% respectively [2] - The average selling price difference for natural gas decreased by 1 cent year-on-year to 0.44 yuan, influenced by changes in sales structure and rising contract gas prices in Q2 [2] - The tax pre-profit for the natural gas sales segment decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, primarily due to declining distribution and connection gross margins [2] LNG Segment - The company's LNG receiving station average load factor was 86.8% (up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year) in 1H25, with expectations to maintain an average load factor of 90% from 2025 to 2027 [3] - The LNG segment achieved a tax pre-profit of 140 million yuan in 1H25, with expectations for a year-on-year profit increase of 5.6% in 2025 [3] Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, with net profit estimates reduced by 8.0%, 10.4%, and 13.2% to 6.15 billion, 6.49 billion, and 6.84 billion yuan respectively [4] - The target price has been lowered to 8.58 HKD from a previous 9.21 HKD, based on an 11x PE for 2025E [4]