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华润啤酒(00291):2025年上半年啤酒业务量价利齐升,白酒业务承压
Guoxin Securities·2025-08-20 09:55

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Outperform the Market" [6][11]. Core Views - The beer business has shown growth in both volume and price, with a revenue increase of 2.5% year-on-year in 1H25, driven by the company's embrace of new retail channels and strong consumption during the Spring Festival [1][3]. - The white liquor business has faced significant challenges, with a revenue decline of 33.7% year-on-year in 1H25, primarily due to industry adjustments and policy impacts [2][10]. - The company's profitability has improved, with a gross margin increase of 2.5 percentage points to 48.3% in the beer segment, aided by cost reductions and operational efficiency measures [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company reported a total revenue of 239.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 57.9 billion CNY, up 22.8% [1][9]. - The core EBIT for the same period was 71.1 billion CNY, reflecting an 11.3% increase year-on-year [1][9]. Beer Business - The beer segment's revenue rose by 2.5% year-on-year, with sales volume increasing by 2.2% and price per ton rising by 0.4% [1][9]. - The growth in sales volume was attributed to the company's strategic focus on non-traditional retail channels and effective inventory management [1][9]. - High-end products like Heineken maintained strong growth, with sales growth exceeding 20% despite a high base from the previous year [1][3]. White Liquor Business - The white liquor segment generated 7.8 billion CNY in revenue, down 33.7% year-on-year, with a significant impact on profitability due to fixed cost dilution [2][10]. - The white liquor business accounted for only 3.3% of total revenue, limiting its overall impact on the company's performance [2][10]. Profitability Forecast - The company expects to achieve total revenues of 388.2 billion CNY, 398.6 billion CNY, and 409.6 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 2.7%, and 2.8% [3][11]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 59.0 billion CNY, 59.6 billion CNY, and 64.1 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 24.4%, 1.0%, and 7.6% respectively [3][11].