市场情绪切换，钢矿延续震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.38%, showing increased volume and decreased positions. With weak demand, stable supply, and a weakening market sentiment, rebar prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. However, rising costs limit the downside space. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil also fluctuated, recording a 0.61% daily decline, with increased volume and decreased positions. Although demand concerns remain and supply is expected to rise, cost increases and production restrictions are positive factors. The price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a 0.19% daily decline, increased volume, and decreased positions. While demand provides some support, the supply has returned to a high level, and the positive effect of demand is weakening. High-valued ore prices are expected to continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [6]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - On August 20, 2025, the 1-year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, remaining unchanged [8]. - Container ship orders reached a record high of 10.4 million TEU, accounting for 31.7% of the existing fleet. There are concerns about oversupply as over 1 million TEU of new ships are expected to be delivered by the end of the year [9]. - Australia postponed the release of the basic facts report and final recommendation for the anti-dumping review of steel bars from China. The basic facts report is expected to be completed by December 10, 2025, and the final report will be submitted to the minister by February 16, 2026 [10]. Spot Market - Rebar: The national average price was 3,339 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton. - Hot-rolled coil: The national average price was 3,477 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. - Iron ore: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 768 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [11]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,132 | -0.38 | 1,317,374 | 1,523,392 | | Hot-rolled Coil | 3,402 | -0.61 | 619,254 | 1,123,892 | | Iron Ore | 769.0 | -0.19 | 289,366 | 440,389 | [13] Related Charts - Included charts on steel and iron ore inventories, production, and price trends, providing historical data for analysis [15][20][30]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Supply pressure remains, and demand is weak. With a weakening market sentiment, prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to demand performance [41]. - Hot-rolled Coil: Supply is expected to rise, and demand concerns remain. Cost increases and production restrictions are positive factors. The price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [42]. - Iron Ore: Demand provides some support, but supply has returned to a high level, and the positive effect of demand is weakening. High-valued ore prices are expected to continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [42].