再论“看股做债”

Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The stock - bond "seesaw" effect has reappeared this year, with the bond market showing an "N" - shaped trend and the curve changing from "bear - flat to bull - steep to bear - steep". The "see - stock - do - bond" trading logic may continue in the third quarter, and the bond market may remain volatile. [2][5] - The recent continuous strengthening of the equity market is due to multiple factors such as policy support, sufficient liquidity, structural opportunities, and improved market sentiment. The macro - narrative basis of the bond market may have changed, mainly driven by asset re - allocation due to changes in risk preference. [3][4] - Looking at historical data, the duration of the stock - bond "seesaw" varies. Currently, the stock is still more attractive in terms of valuation, and the bond market may continue to be under pressure. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Stock - Bond "Seesaw" Effect Reappears 1.1 Equity Market's Continuous Strengthening - On August 18, the three major A - share indices hit new highs, with a trading volume of 2.76 trillion yuan. The rise is due to policy support (e.g., central Huijin's statement and various subsequent policies), sufficient liquidity (e.g., a 2.14 - trillion increase in non - bank deposits and a 1.1 - trillion decrease in household deposits in July, and a 71% year - on - year increase in new stock accounts in July), and structural opportunities in sectors like medicine, computing power/AI hardware, etc. [3][23][25] 1.2 Changes in the Bond Market's Macro - Narrative Basis - Since August, the bond market has been in shock adjustment, with long - term and ultra - long - term interest rates rising significantly. Although economic data in July was below expectations, the bond market was still under pressure, indicating that the current dominant logic is asset re - allocation due to risk preference changes. [31] - The driving factors for the bond market decline include the siphoning effect of the stock market (leading to fund diversion and potential redemption pressure on bond funds), the impact of the new bond interest VAT policy, and high trading congestion and emotional vulnerability in the bond market. [32][33] - In the short term, the bond market may continue to be weak and volatile, with the 10 - year Treasury yield's current phased peak around 1.80%. In the medium term, more refined trading strategies and multi - asset layouts should be considered. [35] 2. How Far Can "See - Stock - Do - Bond" Go? - Looking back at the five historical periods of the stock - strong and bond - weak "seesaw", the duration has varied. Since 2022, the duration has generally shortened. The duration is related to the policy combination and economic fundamentals. [5][36] - The current policy combination may change market expectations. The stock is still more attractive in terms of valuation, with the difference between the reciprocal of the CSI 300's P/E ratio and the 10 - year Treasury yield at about 5.5 percentage points, and the Sharpe ratio difference favoring stocks. [41][42][43] - The "see - stock - do - bond" logic may continue in the third quarter. The bond market may remain volatile, and the 10 - year Treasury yield can be gradually allocated in the 1.75% - 1.80% range, with a focus on band - trading for interest - rate bonds. [5][47]