Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Coke: On August 20, the main coke contract closed at 1,678 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.33%. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port increased by 3.40% week - on - week, while that at Qingdao Port decreased by 0.68% week - on - week. Since August, there have been continuous news disturbances on the coking coal supply side. Although the actual domestic coking coal supply has not been significantly affected, market expectations have improved. After a phase adjustment, coke futures prices may still be prone to rise and difficult to fall, with the main risk being that the reduction in coking coal supply falls short of expectations [5][33]. - Coking Coal: On August 20, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,162.5 points, with an intraday decline of 2.60%. The spot price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port remained flat week - on - week. Before the 9.3 parade, coking plants and steel mills around Beijing face production restriction pressure, and short - term demand for coking coal is under pressure. The market has more long - short differences, and coking coal futures have started high - level consolidation. In the long - term, through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, the oversupply pattern of coking coal is expected to ease, and the price center still has an upward basis, with the main risk being that policy implementation is less than expected [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - Coal Production and Import: From January to July, the production of raw coal by industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. In July, the output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, the national coal imports were 260 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.0% [8]. - Coking Coal Auction in Lvliang: On August 20, the online auction of coking coal in Lvliang market was weak, mostly resulting in auctions being cancelled or prices being reduced. Among 14 mines participating in the auction, the total listed volume was 191,300 tons, and the trading volume was 97,000 tons, with a trading rate of 50.7% [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Coke: The current price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1,520 yuan/ton, up 3.40% week - on - week, 7.04% month - on - month, down 10.06% year - on - year, and down 15.08% compared to the same period. The current price at Qingdao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, down 0.68% week - on - week, up 5.00% month - on - month, down 9.26% year - on - year, and down 15.52% compared to the same period [10]. - Coking Coal: The current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1,190 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week, up 3.48% month - on - month, up 0.85% year - on - year, and down 16.20% compared to the same period. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,530 yuan/ton, down 1.92% week - on - week, up 2.68% month - on - month, up 2.68% year - on - year, and down 12.57% compared to the same period. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,630 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week, down 1.21% month - on - month, up 6.54% year - on - year, and down 6.86% compared to the same period [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - Coke: The main contract closed at 1,678 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.33%, a trading volume of 30,721 lots, an increase of 4,523 lots compared to the previous day, and an open interest of 39,060 lots, an increase of 644 lots compared to the previous day [13]. - Coking Coal: The main contract closed at 1,162.5 points, with an intraday decline of 2.60%, a trading volume of 1,974,478 lots, an increase of 609,519 lots compared to the previous day, and an open interest of 698,714 lots, a decrease of 15,151 lots compared to the previous day [13]. 3.4 Related Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [14][16][18][20]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [21][24][26][29]. - Other Charts: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation charts [27][30][31][32]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Coke: Similar to the core view, after a phase adjustment, coke futures prices may still be prone to rise and difficult to fall, with the main risk being that the reduction in coking coal supply falls short of expectations [33]. - Coking Coal: Similar to the core view, short - term adjustment, but in the long - term, the price center has an upward basis, with the main risk being that policy implementation is less than expected [34].
观望情绪增加，煤焦高位回调
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-20 10:20