Shanghai Lonyer(SH:603003) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-20 10:32Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Today, the prices of each monthly contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures first fluctuated slightly downward and then rebounded. As of the close, the prices of each EC contract showed mixed gains and losses. Looking at the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional holders on the exchange, in the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 150 lots to 27,425 lots, short positions decreased by 609 lots to 31,390 lots, and trading volume increased by 1,556 lots to 34,557 lots (bilateral). The opening price of the futures price today slightly declined, which should be affected by the spot cabin quotes on the European Line. After yesterday's close, CMA CGM once again lowered its spot cabin quotes on the European Line for the next two weeks. However, it then rebounded. On one hand, it should be because the spot cabin quotes on the European Line for some newly opened voyages of MSK in the next two weeks have increased to a certain extent compared to before, which is somewhat positive for the valuation of the futures price. On the other hand, it may come from the recurrence of geopolitical risks. For the future market, it is still relatively likely that the EC will continue to show a volatile trend, and some contracts may rebound from low levels [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For those who have already obtained cabin positions but have full capacity or poor booking volume, and are worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's cabin positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling recommendation and an entry range of 1450 - 1550 [1]. - For those who want to book cabins according to order situations due to increased blank sailings by shipping companies or the approaching peak season, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying recommendation and an entry range of 1200 - 1300 [1]. 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The spot cabin quotes on the European Line for some newly opened voyages of MSK in the next two weeks have increased to a certain extent compared to before [2]. - According to the "Israel Times" report on the 20th local time, Israeli Defense Minister Katz has approved the Israeli army's offensive plan against Gaza City in northern Gaza. The offensive operation is named "Gideon's Chariot B" [2]. 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - CMA CGM has lowered the quotes on the European Line for the end of August and early September [3]. EC Basis Daily Changes - On August 20, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 57.17 points, with a daily increase of 4.30 points and a weekly decrease of 95.31 points [4]. - The basis of EC2510 was 825.17 points, with a daily increase of 15.30 points and a weekly decrease of 77.21 points [5]. - The basis of EC2512 was 404.27 points, with a daily decrease of 0.90 points and a weekly decrease of 131.11 points [5]. - The basis of EC2602 was 648.17 points, with a daily increase of 3.40 points and a weekly decrease of 99.31 points [5]. - The basis of EC2604 was 865.87 points, with a daily increase of 8.80 points and a weekly decrease of 41.01 points [5]. - The basis of EC2606 was 700.17 points, with a daily increase of 12.30 points and a weekly decrease of 62.31 points [5]. EC Price and Spread - On August 20, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2123.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.20% and a weekly increase of 1.92% [5]. - The closing price of EC2510 was 1355.0 points, with a daily decrease of 1.12% and a weekly increase of 1.64% [5]. - The closing price of EC2512 was 1775.9 points, with a daily increase of 0.05% and a weekly increase of 4.46% [5]. - The closing price of EC2602 was 1532.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.22% and a weekly increase of 2.96% [5]. - The closing price of EC2604 was 1314.3 points, with a daily decrease of 0.87% and a weekly decrease of 1.08% [5]. - The closing price of EC2606 was 1480.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.82% and a weekly increase of 0.48% [5]. - The spread of EC2508 - 2512 was 347.1 points, with a daily decrease of 5.2 points and a weekly decrease of 35.8 points [5]. - The spread of EC2512 - 2604 was 461.6 points, with a daily increase of 9.7 points and a weekly increase of 56.5 points [5]. - The spread of EC2604 - 2508 was - 808.7 points, with a daily decrease of 4.5 points and a weekly decrease of 73.6 points [5]. - The spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 768.0 points, with a daily decrease of 5.2 points and a weekly increase of 18.1 points [5]. - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 420.9 points, with a daily decrease of 16.2 points and a weekly decrease of 53.9 points [5]. - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 243.9 points, with a daily increase of 4.3 points and a weekly increase of 11 points [5]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On August 28, for Maersk's sailings from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1490/1564, an increase of $10/74 compared to the previous value/same - period quotes of other sailings; the total quote for 40GP was $2530/2656, an increase of $20/125 compared to the same - period quotes of other sailings [7]. - On September 4, for Maersk's sailings from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1285/1349, an increase of $20/64 compared to the previous value/same - period quotes of other sailings; the total quote for 40GP was $2150/2257, an increase of $40/107 compared to the previous value/same - period quotes of other sailings [7]. - In late August and early September, for CMA CGM's sailings from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1510, a decrease of $50/650 compared to the previous value; the total quote for 40GP was $2620, a decrease of $100/800 compared to the previous value [7]. Global Freight Rate Index - The latest value of SCFIS for the European route was 2180.17 points, a decrease of 55.31 points and a decline of 2.47% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, an increase of 24.15 points and a rise of 2.23% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of SCFI for the European route was $1820/TEU, a decrease of $141 and a decline of 7.19% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of SCFI for the US - West route was $1759/FEU, a decrease of $64 and a decline of 3.51% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of XSI for the European Line was $3074/FEU, a decrease of $9 and a decline of 0.29% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of XSI for the US - West Line was $1837/FEU, a decrease of $12 and a decline of 0.7% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of the FBX comprehensive freight rate index was $1962/FEU, a decrease of $13 and a decline of 0.66% compared to the previous value [8]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On August 19, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.395 days, a decrease of 0.625 days compared to the previous day and 0.924 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.823 days, an increase of 0.014 days compared to the previous day and 1.439 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Yantian Port was 0.880 days, a decrease of 0.058 days compared to the previous day and 0.605 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Singapore Port was 0.563 days, a decrease of 0.546 days compared to the previous day and 0.601 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Jakarta Port was 1.822 days, an increase of 0.294 days compared to the previous day and 0.980 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Long Beach Port was 2.529 days, an increase of 0.218 days compared to the previous day and 1.999 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Savannah Port was 1.528 days, an increase of 0.290 days compared to the previous day and 2.141 days in the same period last year [15]. Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - On August 19, 2025, the speed of container ships over 8000 was 15.846 knots, a decrease of 0.12 knots compared to the previous day and 16.009 knots in the same period last year [23]. - The speed of container ships over 3000 was 14.902 knots, a decrease of 0.069 knots compared to the previous day and 15.169 knots in the same period last year [23]. - The speed of container ships over 1000 was 13.344 knots, an increase of 0.075 knots compared to the previous day and 13.49 knots in the same period last year [23]. - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages was 12, a decrease of 7 compared to the previous day and 7 in the same period last year [23].