Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract closed at 805.5 (-5.5), with a reduction of over 2,500 lots. The 09 contract is unlikely to see intense trading due to continuous position - reduction. [3] - Fundamentally, the situation is strengthening marginally. Spot prices have been rising, daily outbound volume remains high, inventory is decreasing and at a low level over the years. The supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. [3] - Considering the buyer's willingness and the seller's warehouse receipt cost, the current price valuation range is 800 - 840 yuan. When the price is below 800 yuan, buying on the futures market is better than direct import; when it is above 840 yuan, there will be profits from making warehouse receipts. [3] - In terms of trading, when funds enter, the upward possibility is greater than the downward one. The strategy is to mainly go long on dips and supplement with high - selling. The 09 - 11 positive spread arbitrage should exit. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 800 - 840 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4%. [2] Log Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long spot exposure can short log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 820 - 840 yuan to lock in profits and cover production costs. [2] - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, those with short spot exposure can buy log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 790 - 800 yuan to lock in procurement costs in advance. [2] Core Contradiction - The main contract closed at 805.5 (-5.5), with a reduction of over 2,500 lots. The 09 contract is unlikely to have intense trading. [3] - Fundamentally, the situation is strengthening marginally. Spot prices are rising, daily outbound volume is high, inventory is decreasing and at a low level. The supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. [3] - The price valuation range is 800 - 840 yuan. The current futures price is in a reasonable range. The strategy is to mainly go long on dips and supplement with high - selling. The 09 - 11 positive spread arbitrage should exit. [3] 利多 and 利空 Factors - Likely Positive Factors: Traders have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; import costs continue to rise; the overall sentiment of commodities is warming up; and there is an impact from funds. [6] - Likely Negative Factors: The peak season is not prosperous; the shipping volume from foreign suppliers continues to rise. [6] Spot and Basis - Provides spot price, price change, and basis data for different specifications of logs at different ports on August 20, 2025, including 3.9 large (3.8A) at Rizhao Port, 4 large (3.8A) at Taicang Port, etc. [4][9] Log Data Overview - Supply: The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a month - on - month decrease of 80,000 m³ but a year - on - year increase of 35.3%. [7] - Inventory: As of August 15, 2025, the port inventory in China was 3.06 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. [7] - Demand: As of August 15, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 63,300 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 900 m³ but a year - on - year increase of 28.9%. [7] - Profit: The import profit of radiation pine and spruce on August 15, 2025, was - 87 yuan/m³ and - 81 yuan/m³ respectively. [7] - Foreign Market Quotation: The CFR on August 15, 2025, was 116 US dollars/JASm³, with no change week - on - week and a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. [7]
南华原木产业风险管理日报：重心下移-20250820
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-20 10:32