山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.13%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 0.25%. The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, the Russia - Ukraine talks have begun, and the risk - aversion demand has declined. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation has been moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have rebounded [2]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the leaders of the US and Russia had their first meeting in six years, and Trump said it was "productive" and promised to provide security guarantees for Ukraine. White House officials said Trump had signed an executive order to extend the China - US tariff truce for another 90 days [2]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, US retail sales in July grew strongly, and wholesale prices jumped, adding uncertainties to the Fed's interest - rate cut roadmap. The US PPI in July rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest monthly increase in three years. The US CPI inflation in July was moderate, the CPI met expectations but the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.9%. Currently, the market expects the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to soar from about 40% before the non - farm payrolls report to over 80%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields rebounded after encountering resistance [2]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [2]. - Precious metals are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of the capital side, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF decreased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver increased slightly [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.13%, and international and domestic gold prices showed different trends. For example, the Comex gold主力合约收盘价 was $3358.90 per ounce, down $19.10 (-0.57%) from the previous day and down $40.70 (-1.20%) from the previous week [2][3]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [3]. - Related Data: Various data such as price, basis, spread, open interest, inventory, CFTC management fund net position, and gold ETF are presented in detail in the report [3]. - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures companies' members in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are listed, showing the changes in positions of different companies [4]. Silver - Market Performance: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 0.25%, and international and domestic silver prices also had different changes. For example, the Comex silver主力合约收盘价 was $37.33 per ounce, down $0.73 (-1.93%) from the previous day and down $0.61 (-1.61%) from the previous week [2][7]. - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit [7]. - Related Data: Data including price, basis, spread, open interest, inventory, CFTC management fund net position, and silver ETF are provided [7]. - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures companies' members in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are shown, along with the changes in positions of each company [8]. Fundamental Key Data - Monetary Attribute Data: It includes federal fund target rate, discount rate, Fed total assets, M2, ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data [9][11][12]. - Other Data: Central bank gold reserves of different countries, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, gold/foreign exchange reserve ratios, geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB data are also presented [13]. - Fed Interest Rate Expectations: The expected probabilities of different interest - rate ranges in Fed meetings from 2025 to 2026 are provided according to the CME FedWatch tool [14].