聚酯产业风险管理日报：原料消息推动乙二醇冲高收涨-20250820

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental supply - demand of ethylene glycol remains stable without obvious drivers, but it may rebound due to unexpected factors. Its price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall trend. The operation strategy is to buy on dips close to the cost end. In the medium - to - long - term, the prosperity of the downstream polyester peak season needs to be observed, and long positions can be hedged by selling near - month out - of - the - money call options [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Ethylene Glycol | 4200 - 4700 | 9.09% | 1.4% | | PX | 6500 - 7400 | 11.78% | 17.7% | | PTA | 4400 - 5300 | 9.30% | 4.6% | | Bottle Chips | 5800 - 6500 | 7.92% | 0.9% | [2] 3.2 Polyester Hedging Strategy Table - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, for long - position spot exposure, sell EG2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 4500 - 4600, buy EG2510P4350 put options, and sell EG2510C4600 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 30 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs [2]. - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for short - position spot exposure, buy EG2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 4250 - 4350, and sell EG2510P4350 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 30 - 50 to lock in procurement costs and reduce costs [2]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - Ethylene glycol is in a weak supply - demand balance with limited inventory accumulation, and the inventory accumulation expectation has been fully priced. Once there is an unexpected change in supply - demand, it may rebound rapidly [4]. - The coal - based profit of ethylene glycol is compressed by coal prices, and the downward space is limited under stable costs [4]. - The ethylene glycol plants are operating at full capacity, and additional supply is difficult to increase even if the valuation rebounds. Supply losses are difficult to replenish quickly in case of supply accidents [6]. 3.4利多解读 (Likely to be "Positive Factors Analysis" in English) - South Korea plans to cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity annually, which may impact the raw material supply and ethylene - based cost of ethylene glycol, pushing up its price [7]. - The planned arrival at the port this week is 965,000 tons, relatively low, and the port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons next Monday, tightening spot liquidity [7]. - The load of looms and spinning mills has increased slightly. With the approaching of September, some autumn - winter orders at the terminal have started, which is expected to drive order release and increase the load of filament yarns [7]. - The price of thermal coal has strengthened slightly, further compressing coal - based profits and strengthening cost support [7]. 3.5利空解读 (Likely to be "Negative Factors Analysis" in English) - The total load of ethylene glycol has dropped to 66.39% (- 2.01%), with a decrease in oil - based production and an increase in coal - based production. Some production losses are expected due to short - term shutdowns and restarts of some plants [8]. 3.6 Price, Spread, and Processing Fee Data - The report provides price data of various products such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol on different dates, as well as their daily and weekly changes [9][10]. - It also includes spread data between different contracts and varieties, and processing fee data of different products, along with their daily and weekly changes [9][10]. - The sales - to - production ratios of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips are also presented, along with their daily and weekly changes [10].