能源化策略：原油和煤炭价格双双?弱，成本端拖累化

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating weakly [4][8] - Asphalt: Oscillating weakly [4][9] - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [4][10] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [4][11] - Methanol: Oscillating [21][22] - Urea: Oscillating strongly [4][23] - Ethylene glycol: Oscillating [16][17] - PX: Oscillating [12] - PTA: Oscillating [13][14] - Short - fiber: Oscillating [18][20] - Bottle chips: Oscillating [19] - PP: Oscillating weakly [4][25][26] - Propylene: Oscillating [26][27] - Plastic: Oscillating weakly [4][24] - Pure benzene: Oscillating [14][15] - Styrene: Oscillating [15][16] - PVC: Oscillating cautiously and weakly [4][29] - Caustic soda: Oscillating [30] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil and coal prices are both weak, dragging down the chemical industry. Urea rises against the trend due to improved export expectations. Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating and weakly - biased mindset, using the 5 - day moving average as a stop - loss point [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Accumulation pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. API data shows a decline in US crude and gasoline inventories last week. Globally, OPEC+ production increases have led to a counter - seasonal accumulation of on - land crude inventories. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with attention to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [8] 3.1.2 Asphalt - The asphalt futures price of 3500 may change from support to pressure. EIA has significantly lowered oil price expectations, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may drive the geopolitical premium to decline. The supply tension has eased, and demand remains unoptimistic [9] 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Despite the attack on Russian refineries, high - sulfur fuel oil oscillates weakly. EIA's adjustment of oil price and production expectations, along with increased supply and weak demand, contribute to the weak trend [10] 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices oscillate weakly following crude oil. It is affected by factors such as shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and increased supply pressure [11] 3.1.5 Methanol - Cautiously monitor long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts. Methanol futures prices oscillate. The port inventory has increased, and downstream olefins prices are under pressure. There may be long - position opportunities in the far - month due to expected overseas shutdowns [21][22] 3.1.6 Urea - Export expectations are good, but transactions are cautious. The improvement in China - India relations promotes the upward trend. The market sentiment was temporarily stagnant but was reignited by the news of China - India relations [22][23] 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - Supply and demand both increase, and there is support at the lower price level. Domestic large - scale plants are restarting and having short - term shutdowns, and demand is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons [16] 3.1.8 PX - There is short - term support at the lower level. The supply - demand pattern is relatively stable, and downstream demand shows signs of improvement [12] 3.1.9 PTA - It is looking for a direction in oscillation. The short - term trading logic lies in ongoing supply maintenance and expected demand improvement [13] 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - It fluctuates following upstream costs. Supply - demand fundamentals change little, and sales have slightly recovered, but the increase is limited [18] 3.1.11 Bottle Chips - There is some cost support, but its own driving force is limited. The price mainly follows raw materials, and the processing fee is compressed [19] 3.1.12 PP - Good refinery profits suppress valuation, and PP oscillates weakly. Oil prices are weak, propane prices are low, supply is increasing, and demand is in the peak - off - peak transition period [25][26] 3.1.13 Propylene (PL) - PL follows PP to oscillate and decline in the short term. Supply is abundant, but downstream follow - up is insufficient [26] 3.1.14 Plastic - Fundamental support is limited, and plastic oscillates weakly. Oil prices are weak, and the supply side has pressure [24] 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - It has insufficient driving force and oscillates within a narrow range. Geopolitical tensions are easing, and downstream profits are declining [14][15] 3.1.16 Styrene - Peak - season stocking has begun, but demand is limited. There are some positive factors such as improved pure benzene market and downstream stocking, but negative factors like increased supply and limited demand are more prominent [15][16] 3.1.17 PVC - Anti - dumping measures pressure demand, and PVC is cautiously weak. Upstream autumn maintenance may reduce production, and export expectations are under pressure [29] 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - Market sentiment is poor, dragging down the price. Fundamentals are marginally improving, but market sentiment is still affected [30] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [32][33][35] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report mentions monitoring for methanol, urea, styrene, etc., specific data summaries are not provided in the given text [36][48][60]