银河期货铁合金日报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 20, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. The SF main - contract closed at 5622, down 0.99%, with a decrease of 4976 in positions; the SM main - contract closed at 5836, down 1.32%, with an increase of 19417 in positions [6]. - For ferrosilicon, on the 20th, the spot price was stable to weak, with some regional spot prices dropping by 50 - 70 yuan/ton. The supply increased last week, and it's necessary to watch if the resumption trend pauses after the price decline. The demand for steel products remains high but has limited room for further growth. After the recent sharp price drop, the futures price is approaching the cost of some production areas, the high - premium risk has been largely released, and the profit - loss ratio of chasing short positions is not high, so some short positions can be reduced [6]. - For silicomanganese, on the 20th, the manganese ore spot price dropped slightly, and the silicomanganese spot price declined overall, with some regional spot prices dropping by 50 - 230 yuan/ton. The supply has accelerated its increase recently, and it's necessary to watch if the resumption rhythm changes after the price decline. The demand is high statically, but the recent apparent demand for rebar has decreased seasonally, so it's necessary to watch the demand - side risks. At the current price, the high - premium risk has been largely released, and the profit - loss ratio of chasing short positions is not high, so some short positions can be reduced [6]. - Trading strategies include partially reducing short positions, conducting cash - futures positive arbitrage when the basis is low, and selling straddle option combinations at high prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Futures: The SF main - contract closed at 5622, down 56 for the day and 172 for the week, with a trading volume of 267,911 (down 104,641) and an open interest of 233,070 (down 4976). The SM main - contract closed at 5836, down 78 for the day and 238 for the week, with a trading volume of 232,175 (up 39,082) and an open interest of 282,128 (up 167,243) [4]. - Spot: For ferrosilicon, the spot price in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai decreased by 50 - 70 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu it decreased by 50 yuan/ton and in Tianjin it remained unchanged. For silicomanganese, the spot price in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin decreased by 50 - 230 yuan/ton [4]. - Basis/Spread: For ferrosilicon, the basis between Inner Mongolia and the main - contract increased by 6 for the day and 72 for the week; for silicomanganese, it increased by 28 for the day and 188 for the week. The SF - SM spread increased by 22 for the day and 66 for the week [4]. - Raw Materials: For manganese ore in Tianjin, the price of South African semi - carbonate and Gabon lump decreased by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan/ton degree, and the price of Australian lump decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton degree. The price of blue charcoal small materials in Shaanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia it increased by 35 yuan/ton [4]. Market Judgement - Trading Strategies: On August 20, the ferroalloy futures prices declined. For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable to weak, the supply increased, and the demand had limited growth space. For silicomanganese, the manganese ore spot price dropped slightly, the supply increased rapidly, and the demand faced risks. Current high - premium risks have been largely released, and short positions can be partially reduced. Strategies also include cash - futures positive arbitrage and selling straddle option combinations [6]. - Important Information: In July 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 2.7435 million tons, a 2.22% increase from June and a 19.61% increase from July 2024. On the 20th, the price of South African semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port was 34.5 - 35 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump was 40 yuan/ton degree, and South32 Australian lump was 40.5 - 41 yuan/ton degree [7]. Relevant Attachments - Price and Cost Diagrams: Include diagrams of ferroalloy main - contract trends, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits. For example, the electricity price in most regions remained stable, and the production costs and profits of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese varied "by " region [16][18][19][22 "by "].