需求逐步走弱，基本金属震荡承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual outlooks for each metal: - Copper: Expected to show an oscillating pattern [8][9] - Alumina: Under pressure and expected to oscillate [10] - Aluminum: Expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term, with a range - bound trend [12][13] - Aluminum Alloy: Expected to oscillate in the short - term, with potential for price spread recovery [13][14] - Zinc: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and decline in the long - term [15][16] - Lead: Expected to oscillate [17][18] - Nickel: Expected to oscillate widely in the short - term and hold a short position in the long - term [19][21] - Stainless Steel: Expected to maintain a range - bound trend in the short - term [24] - Tin: Expected to oscillate, with increased volatility possible in August [25][26] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The overall demand for non - ferrous metals is gradually weakening, and prices are under pressure to oscillate. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar supports prices, but the demand - weakening risk is increasing. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in some metals support prices. For specific metals, their prices are affected by factors such as macroeconomic data, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Viewpoint: Sino - US tariff suspension extension leads to high - level oscillation of copper prices. - Analysis: Sino - US suspend 24% tariffs for 90 days; Fed keeps interest rates unchanged; copper production increases; spot premiums decline; inventory rises. - Logic: Macro - level risk preference rises, but raw material supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season with limited inventory accumulation. - Outlook: Copper may oscillate due to supply constraints, low inventory, weakening demand, and potential tariff impacts [8][9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Viewpoint: Spot prices decline slightly, and warehouse receipts increase, leading to pressure on alumina prices to oscillate. - Analysis: Spot prices in various regions decline slightly; overseas transactions occur; warehouse receipts increase. - Logic: Smelter production capacity recovers, resulting in an oversupply and increasing inventory. - Outlook: Consider shorting at high levels based on warehouse receipt changes [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Viewpoint: Spot prices are at a discount, and aluminum prices oscillate and decline. - Analysis: Spot prices, inventory changes, and corporate performance are presented. - Logic: US retail data is weak, and domestic economic data slows. Supply is stable, while demand is in the off - season, and inventory accumulates. - Outlook: Observe short - term consumption and inventory accumulation, with prices expected to range - bound [12][13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Viewpoint: Tax refund policy tightening leads to oscillating prices. - Analysis: Price data, production project information, and policy changes are provided. - Logic: Supply and demand are both weak. Supply is affected by policy tightening, and demand is in the off - season. - Outlook: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with potential for price spread recovery [13][14]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Viewpoint: Declining ferrous metal prices lead to oscillating and declining zinc prices. - Analysis: Spot prices, inventory changes, and new project information are given. - Logic: Macro - level is slightly negative. Supply is loosening, and demand is in the off - season. - Outlook: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and decline in the long - term [16][17]. 3.1.6 Lead - Viewpoint: Stable cost support leads to oscillating lead prices. - Analysis: Price data, inventory changes, and market supply - demand conditions are presented. - Logic: Spot premiums are stable, supply and demand are both weak, and cost support is strong. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to oscillate due to economic data and supply - demand balance [17][18]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Viewpoint: Fluctuating market sentiment leads to wide - range oscillation of nickel prices. - Analysis: Inventory changes, new policies, and corporate events are provided. - Logic: Market sentiment dominates, and fundamental factors are weakening. - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term and hold a short position in the long - term [19][21]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Viewpoint: Significant increase in warehouse receipts leads to continued price correction. - Analysis: Warehouse receipt changes, spot prices, and new policies are given. - Logic: Cost increases, production declines, and inventory shows a structural surplus. - Outlook: Stainless steel prices are expected to range - bound in the short - term, depending on demand, inventory, and cost [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - Viewpoint: Declining Indonesian refined tin exports lead to high - level oscillation of tin prices. - Analysis: Inventory changes and spot prices are presented. - Logic: Supply is tight, but demand weakens in the second half of the year. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to oscillate, with increased volatility possible in August [25][26]. 3.2行情监测 The report provides information on the performance of the non - ferrous metals index, including today's, recent 5 - day, recent 1 - month, and year - to - date changes, showing a decline in the short - term and an increase since the beginning of the year [143].