贵属策略报：经济数据良莠不?，??延续震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The gold market is in a low - volatility oscillation, waiting for the Fed meeting minutes and the follow - up progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The Fed's policy path and geopolitical developments are expected to make gold oscillate and accumulate strength [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Trump hopes Putin will end the Ukraine war but admits Putin may not want an agreement. Trump proposes "air support" for Ukraine's post - war security and arranges bilateral talks between Russian and Ukrainian presidents. The 24th China - India border issue special representative meeting was held in New Delhi. US July building permits were 1354,000, lower than expected, while new housing starts were 1428,000, higher than expected [2] Price Logic - On Tuesday, gold prices oscillated with low volatility. US new housing starts and building permits were divergent, and the lower - than - expected building permits may imply limited sustainability of the strong new housing starts. Last week's US PPI had the largest monthly increase since 2022, suppressing the expectation of a 50 - basis - point rate cut. US retail sales increased 0.5% month - on - month in July, in line with expectations, but inflation expectations rose and consumer confidence fell [3] Future Outlook - Before Powell's departure, his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium may balance inflation, employment, politics, and economy, with vague monetary policy signals. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks have not resolved the core differences, mainly due to territorial disputes and Russia's opposition to Western military intervention. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting and geopolitical conflicts. The weekly London gold spot is expected to be in the range of [3300, 3500], and the weekly London silver spot in the range of [36, 40] [4][7][8] Index Information - On August 19, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2223.20, down 0.36%; the commodity 20 index was 2469.40, down 0.26%; the industrial product index was 2256.94, down 0.47%. The precious metal index was 2703.64, with a daily decline of 0.47%, a 5 - day decline of 0.61%, a 1 - month decline of 1.52%, and a year - to - date increase of 22.20% [47][49]