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冠通每日交易策略-20250820
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-08-20 11:33

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the Fed's September FOMC meeting is approaching, with high market uncertainty. The fundamentals remain largely unchanged, but the upcoming peak season may boost demand, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the market is volatile. Although the resumption of Yichun Yinli's production eases supply concerns, the suspension of CATL's production continues. With the anti - involution measures in progress, lithium carbonate prices are likely to oscillate at high levels [11]. - For crude oil, supply - demand conditions are weakening, and prices are expected to decline under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [12][14]. - For asphalt, considering factors such as开工 rate, production, demand, and cost, it is advisable to view asphalt as having a weak and volatile trend [15]. - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near term. The 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended to take profit and exit as the 09 contract approaches the delivery month [17]. - For plastic, it is expected to oscillate recently, influenced by factors like开工 rate, demand, and cost [18]. - For PVC, due to factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, it is expected to oscillate downward [20]. - For coking coal, the market sentiment is fluctuating, and the futures price is temporarily oscillating with a downward bias [21]. - For urea, the market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of August 20th, domestic commodity futures contracts showed mixed performance. EG, caustic soda, and methanol rose over 1%, while lithium carbonate hit the daily limit down, and soda ash, glass, etc. declined significantly. Stock index futures generally rose, and treasury bond futures had different trends [6]. Capital Flows - As of 15:22 on August 20th, funds flowed into CSI 1000 2509, SSE 300 2509, and CSI 500 2509, while funds flowed out of Shanghai silver 2510, lithium carbonate 2511, and ten - year treasury bond 2509 [7]. Specific Commodity Analyses Copper - Uncertainty surrounds the Fed's FOMC meeting. Supply may face challenges in the later third - quarter, and demand is expected to improve in the peak season. Copper prices are likely to oscillate at high levels [9]. Lithium Carbonate - After the resumption of Yichun Yinli's production, the market sentiment fluctuated, and the price hit the daily limit down. Supply may decline in August - September, and demand has some support [11]. Crude Oil - Seasonal factors, OPEC+ production decisions, and geopolitical events affect supply - demand. Prices are expected to decline under pressure [12][14]. Asphalt - Supply is increasing, but demand is restricted by factors such as weather and funds. Cost is weakening, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [15]. PP - Downstream开工 rate is low, supply may increase, and cost is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate, and the 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended to take profit [16][17]. Plastic -开工 rate is at a medium - low level, demand is weak, and cost is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate [18]. PVC - Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate downward [20]. Coking Coal - Supply is increasing, downstream demand is complex, and market sentiment is fluctuating. The price is temporarily oscillating with a downward bias [21]. Urea - Supply has a narrow - range fluctuation, demand is insufficient, and inventory is high. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender [23].