宏观经济专题：对等关税2.0后，行业关税或将成关键新变量

Trade Agreements Overview - The Trump administration has reached trade agreements with the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea, covering 38.6% of total US goods imports and 49.8% of the US trade deficit in 2024 (excluding the UK) [3] - The US-UK trade agreement includes a 10% base tariff and industry export quotas, with ongoing negotiations on specific details [4] - The US-Vietnam trade agreement proposes a 20% base tariff and a 40% tariff on re-exported goods, reflecting a significant imbalance in tariff rates [5] Tariff Structures and Economic Impact - The US-Japan trade agreement imposes a 15% base tariff on exports, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US, aiming to boost domestic industrial production [5] - The US-EU agreement also includes a 15% base tariff, with the EU required to invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion in US energy by 2028 [5] - The tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper range from 25% to 50%, with an estimated $70.7 billion in tariffs expected from these metals in 2024 [5] Future Implications - Industry tariffs are likely to become a central focus of Trump's trade policy, aimed at reducing the trade deficit and promoting domestic manufacturing [5] - The potential for increased tariffs on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and rare minerals is anticipated, with ongoing investigations into these industries [5] - The overall tariff revenue for the US is projected to exceed $28 billion by July 2025, indicating a significant reliance on tariff income [5]