橡胶甲醇原油：偏空情绪消化，能化收敛跌幅

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [5]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, stopping the decline and stabilizing, and slightly rebounding on Wednesday. However, the continuation of the rise is weak and the space is limited [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed a trend of decreasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. The price of domestic and foreign crude oil futures is expected to maintain a weak - fluctuating trend in the future [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.50%. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.12%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87% [9]. - As of August 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% [10]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 79.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.16%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.8633 million tons [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 9.17%, a week - on - week increase of 2.90%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 86.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 1.21% [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.18 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.61%. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 172 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 891,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 87,800 tons. As of the week of August 14, 2025, the inland methanol inventory totaled 295,700 tons [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 74. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.327 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 43,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 427 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.036 million barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.4% [13]. - As of August 12, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures were 116,742 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 25,087 contracts. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 199,820 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 30,594 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures main contract was 15,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - The spot price of methanol was 2,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures main contract was 2,424 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - The spot price of crude oil was 456.8 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.2 yuan/barrel from the previous day. The futures main contract was 482.8 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.4 yuan/barrel from the previous day [14]. 3.3 Related Charts - The report includes various charts related to rubber, methanol, and crude oil, such as rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, crude oil basis, etc. [15][27][40]