纯苯：苯乙烯风险管理日报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - 8 - 9月受韩国纯苯装置检修影响，我国进口端纯苯供应预计下降，国内供需双增，8 - 9月纯苯供需格局有所好转，但隐性库存高企且终端需求不佳，短期基本面改善有限，需观察后续传统需求旺季是否带来需求增量 [3] - 苯乙烯近端价格低，下游工厂抄底意愿增强，原料补库基本结束，后续出口端有需求增量，8 - 9月苯乙烯供应过剩程度减轻 [3] - 当前苯乙烯绝对价格处于近几年历史低位且旺季预期无法证伪，短期单边谨慎做空，品种间可关注苯乙烯大装置落地时间，考虑逢高做缩纯苯苯乙烯价差 [3] - 今日受原料端供应缩量消息影响，午后化工板块整体偏强运行 [3] 3. Content Summaries by Directory 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Price Forecast: The predicted monthly price range for pure benzene is 5800 - 6400 yuan/ton, and for styrene is 7000 - 7600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 85.8% [3] - Hedging Strategies for Styrene - Inventory Management: When finished - product inventory is high and worried about price decline, short 25% of styrene futures (EB2510) at 7350 - 7400 yuan/ton and sell 50% of call options (EB2510C7500) at 75 - 90 to lock in profits and reduce costs [3] - Procurement Management: When procurement inventory is low, buy 50% of styrene futures (EB2510) at 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton and sell 75% of put options (EB2510P7100) at 90 - 110 to lock in procurement costs [3] 3.2 Core Contradictions - For pure benzene, supply from imports is expected to decline due to South Korean plant maintenance, but high hidden inventory and poor terminal demand limit short - term improvement in fundamentals [3] - For styrene, downstream restocking is mostly completed, and there is expected demand growth in exports, reducing the supply surplus in August - September [3] 3.3利多解读 - Recent downstream projects of pure benzene have been put into production, improving the supply - demand pattern [6] - As of August 18, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu decreased by 1.37% compared to the previous period, with visible inventory gradually decreasing [6] - There are many rumors of styrene exports, with expected demand growth in the export market [6] - The return of multiple maintenance devices in the EPS and PS industries, especially EPS, has led to a significant increase in the operating rate and demand for styrene [6] - South Korean petrochemical companies will cut naphtha cracking capacity by up to 3.7 million tons annually [6] 3.4利空解读 - New styrene production capacity is starting to show, with two large - scale styrene plants in Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical to be put into operation in September and October, ensuring sufficient supply [7] - As of August 18, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 1.27 million tons (8.53%) compared to the previous period [7] - The production schedule of three major white - goods in late July shows poor production plans, leading to a pessimistic outlook for styrene terminal consumption in the third quarter [7] 3.5 Basis and Spread Data - Basis Changes: The basis of pure benzene and styrene shows different degrees of daily changes, with styrene basis generally decreasing [8] - Spread Changes: The spreads within the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain, including spot - paper goods spreads and styrene - pure benzene spreads, also show certain daily changes [9] 3.6 Industrial Chain Price Data - The prices of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain, such as crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene, show different daily and weekly changes [9][10] - The profits of different products in the industrial chain, including pure benzene production profit, styrene integration profit, and downstream product profits, also vary [9][10]