餐饮系列研究之中餐深度：中餐方兴未艾，品牌格局渐明

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [4] Core Insights - The Chinese dining industry is characterized by a large market size and high frequency of repurchase, making it a highly sticky consumer segment [7] - The industry is transitioning from "can replicate" to "can scale" due to advancements in standardization and cold chain efficiency [7] - Major brands like Laoxiangji and Xiaocaiyuan are leading the market with innovative models and significant growth potential [7] Industry Scale - The Chinese dining market is projected to reach over 55,000 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 9% from 2020 to 2024 [14] - The Chinese cuisine market is expected to grow to over 36,000 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of about 4% from 2018 to 2023 [15] - The market for affordable Chinese dining, which constitutes about 90% of the Chinese cuisine market, is estimated to be around 36,000 billion yuan [7][18] Brand Competition Landscape - The development of Chinese dining chains is entering a new phase with significant growth in brands with over 100 stores, particularly in lower-tier cities [7] - The concentration of the industry remains low, with leading brands primarily located in key regions like East China and Southwest China [7] - The market is witnessing a structural shift with brands like Laoxiangji and Xiaocaiyuan expanding rapidly in lower-tier cities [7] Future Outlook - The current chain rate of Chinese dining is only 23.2%, significantly lower than that of the US and Japan, indicating substantial growth potential [7] - The market for affordable Chinese dining is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.9% from 2024 to 2028, driven by consumer demand for convenience and value [7] - The international Chinese dining market is projected to grow from 233 billion USD in 2020 to 445 billion USD by 2027, with Southeast Asia and Europe being key expansion areas [7]