Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express [6][16] Core Views - The second quarter saw ZTO Express achieve a revenue of 11.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while adjusted net profit decreased by 27% [6] - The volume of parcels increased by 16.5% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in growth, but profits were pressured by price wars [6] - The report highlights a shift in the industry towards price increases amidst a competitive environment, suggesting that ZTO Express is well-positioned to benefit from this trend [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2023: 38.419 billion yuan - 2024: 44.281 billion yuan - 2025E: 47.913 billion yuan - 2026E: 53.746 billion yuan - 2027E: 60.232 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 9% for 2023, 15% for 2024, 8% for 2025, 12% for 2026, and 12% for 2027 [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2025E: 89.93 billion yuan - 2026E: 95.27 billion yuan - 2027E: 106.89 billion yuan - Corresponding PE ratios are projected at 13x for 2025, 12x for 2026, and 11x for 2027 [6][3] Market Data - As of August 20, 2025, ZTO Express's closing price was 154.70 HKD, with a market capitalization of 124.451 billion HKD [4] - The stock has experienced a 52-week high of 219.00 HKD and a low of 123.70 HKD [4]
中通快递-W（02057）：二季度价格战利润承压，行业反内卷背景下关注公司战略变化