银河期货煤炭日报-20250820

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical research report on coal, dated August 20, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - On August 20, the port thermal coal market was stable with limited fluctuations in quotes and transactions. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 700 - 710 yuan/ton, 5000 - kcal at 640 - 645 yuan/ton, and 4500 - kcal at 560 - 565 yuan/ton in the market. Different regions had different price ranges for non - electric enterprise coal [3] Group 3: Important Information - From January to July, national railways transported 11.96 billion tons of coal, including 8.16 billion tons of thermal coal. The coal inventory of railway - directly - supplied power plants remained at a high level. The freight volumes of mining construction materials, smelting supplies, and grain increased by 13.6%, 8.2%, and 12.7% year - on - year respectively [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: Recent continuous rainfall in the northwest led to a significant decline in the coal mine operating rate in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. As of August 19, the operating rate in Ordos was 71% and in Yulin was 45%. The daily average coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 3.5 million tons, and the overall domestic supply tightened [5] - Import: Affected by the improvement of domestic coal prices, the sentiment in the import market continued to warm up this week. Due to the good price advantage of imported coal, the inquiry enthusiasm of coastal power plants increased significantly, and the market transaction atmosphere improved [5] - Demand: Power plants maintained a stable operation with a load of 70% - 80%. Power plant inventories were at a high level, and only a small amount of rigid - demand purchases were made in the market under the long - term agreement coal supply. On the other hand, the cement operating rate at the non - electric end hovered at a low level, while the restart of methanol and urea maintenance devices led to a high - level operating rate, and the demand for chemical coal was generally good, providing stable support for coal prices in the pit - mouth area [5] - Inventory: Northwest rainfall affected coal transportation. The daily average volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was less than 1 million tons, and the number of approved carriages by the Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 15. With high outbound volumes, port inventories continued to decline. As of August 20, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports dropped to 21.8 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from the high level, and the inventory level was low. The daily consumption of coastal power plants increased seasonally, and inventories decreased, while the inventories of inland power plants were still high [5] - Outlook: In late August, coal production in major producing areas was restricted, the coal operating rate in Ordos and Yulin dropped significantly, and the daily average output decreased to 3.5 million tons, resulting in supply tightening. Power plant inventories decreased, import profits emerged, and power plants only made rigid - demand purchases. The shipping from production areas to ports was at a loss, and traders suspended shipping. Port inflows were at a low level, while outflows were high, and port inventories continued to decline. With continuous high - temperature weather across the country, the daily consumption of power plants reached the annual peak, coal consumption returned to the same - period level, the inventories of coastal power plants were lower than the same - period level, and continuous rigid - demand purchases were made. The FOB prices at ports rebounded continuously. Affected by continuous rainfall, the coal mine operating rate in the pit - mouth area dropped significantly, production was restricted, and the demand for chemical coal was good. The pit - mouth prices rebounded continuously, rising 100 yuan/ton from the low point, and are expected to remain firm and rise in the short term [5]