软商品日报-20250820

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Paper pulp: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Sugar: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Apple: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Timber: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Natural rubber: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - 20 - number rubber: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Butadiene rubber: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and timber - provides market conditions, supply - demand situations, and offers operation suggestions such as temporary observation [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined with large intraday drops, spot sales base remained stable, and spot trading was average. Pure - cotton yarn trading was okay with stable prices [2] - Inventory digestion in July slowed down, expected to improve in August due to approaching peak season. Cotton imports in July were at a low level, 50000 tons, down 149400 tons year - on - year and up 22600 tons month - on - month. From January to July 2025, cumulative imports were 520000 tons, a 74.2% year - on - year decrease [2] - There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season. Short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton is limited by weak downstream orders and poor profits of most inland enterprises. Suggest temporary observation [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Production data from the central - southern part of Brazil in the second half of July was favorable. Short - term, US sugar prices may stabilize and rebound due to potentially lower production in Brazil. Medium - term, US sugar futures prices have not reached the bottom [3] - Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Sales rhythm was fast this year, inventory decreased year - on - year, and spot pressure was relatively light. Market focus shifted to imports and yield estimates for the next season. Import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly this year, but the yield for the 25/26 season is uncertain [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. Early - maturing apples started to be on the market, with slow coloring, small fruit sizes, and a shortage of high - quality products leading to high prices [4] - As of August 14, national cold - storage apple inventory was 461300 tons, a 49.4% year - on - year decrease. Last week's cold - storage apple removal volume was 50700 tons, a 32.31% year - on - year decrease. Market focus shifted to new - season yield estimates [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all dropped significantly and rebounded in the afternoon. Domestic natural and synthetic rubber prices declined, and Thai raw material market prices mostly fell [6] - Global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate increased significantly [6] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires rebounded, semi - steel tires decreased, and tire enterprise inventories increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased to 617000 tons, and China's butadiene port inventory increased to 204000 tons. Suggest temporary observation [6] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp futures dropped significantly. Shandong Moon's spot price was 5450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Russian needle pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5250 yuan/ton; broad - leaf pulp was 4150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [7] - As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 2.099 million tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. Domestic social retail data in July weakened month - on - month, indicating weakening domestic demand. Suggest temporary observation or range - trading strategy [7] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable. Last week, the arrival volume decreased significantly. Outer - market quotes increased for two consecutive months, while domestic spot price increases were small, and traders' pressure increased [8] - After entering the off - season, the daily port outbound volume was around 60000 cubic meters with good overall outbound conditions. As of August 15, national port timber inventory was 3.06 million cubic meters, a 0.65% month - on - month decrease. Suggest temporary observation [8]