银河期货油脂日报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil market is expected to start a high - level correction due to factors such as the approaching final contract - changing period and profit - taking after recent price increases, but the correction range is limited. [11] - For different oil products, there are different trends and trading suggestions, including specific views on palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. [5][6][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: Soybean oil's 2601 closing price is 8414 with a decline of 112. Palm oil's 2601 closing price is 9554 with a decline of 86. Rapeseed oil's 2601 closing price is 9828 with a decline of 22. The basis of each variety in different regions is also presented. [3] - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: For the 1 - 5 monthly spread, soybean oil is 290 with a decline of 30, palm oil is 306 with a decline of 2, and rapeseed oil is 145 with a decline of 6. [3] - Cross - Variety Spreads: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread is - 1140 with a decline of 26, the OI - Y spread is 1414 with an increase of 90, the OI - P spread is 274 with an increase of 64, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.66 with a decline of 0.03. [3] - Import Profits: The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 144, and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 485. [3] - Weekly Commercial Inventories: In the 33rd week of 2025, soybean oil inventory is 109.6 million tons, palm oil inventory is 60.0 million tons, and rapeseed oil inventory is 66.0 million tons. [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20, 2025, were 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase compared to the same period last month. [5] - Domestic Market - Palm Oil: The palm oil futures price fluctuated and slightly declined. As of August 15, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 61.73 million tons, a 2.92% increase from the previous week. The import profit inversion has expanded, and there was a reported purchase of one ship. [5] - Domestic Market - Soybean Oil: The soybean oil futures price fluctuated and declined by over 1%. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 233.9 million tons with an operating rate of 65.75%. As of August 15, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 114.27 million tons, a 0.44% increase from the previous week. [6] - Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed oil futures price fluctuated and slightly declined. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 4.48 million tons with an operating rate of 11.94%. As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 66 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from the previous week. The import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has expanded. [9] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral Strategy: Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider short - term shorting or waiting patiently for a correction to go long at low prices. [11] - Arbitrage Strategy: The YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking. P15 can be considered to be widened after a correction. [11] - Option Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. [12] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts showing the spot basis of different oils in different regions, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2016 - 2025. [15][18]