Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Supply - side pressure is significant and demand is average, causing price declines. Cold - storage eggs are hitting the market after a previous price rebound, and the current spot price increase is below expectations. It is advisable to short the 10 and 11 contracts on price rallies [10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas is 3.08 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.39 yuan/jin, also down 0.03 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price is currently stable [6] - In July, the national in - lay hen inventory was 1.356 billion, up 0.016 billion from the previous month and 6.1% year - on - year. The monthly hatch of layer chicks in sample enterprises was 39.98 million, down 2% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year. The estimated in - lay hen inventory from August to November 2025 is 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 14th, the weekly slaughter volume of layer hens in the main production areas was 14.42 million, up 5% from the previous week. The average slaughter age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7] - As of August 14th, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,605 tons, up 1% from the previous week [8] - As of August 7th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, down 0.17 days from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 1.03 days, down 0.2 days [8] - As of August 14th, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week. On August 8th, the expected profit per layer was 11.92 yuan/feather, down 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - Today, the national price of culled hens dropped, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.89 yuan/jin, down 0.25 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [9] 2. Trading Logic - Supply - side pressure and average demand lead to price drops. The release of cold - storage eggs after a price rebound impacts prices. The current spot price increase is disappointing, so it's recommended to short the 10 and 11 contracts on price rallies [10] 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting on price rallies [11] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [11] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [11]
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250820
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-08-20 12:20