黑色金属日报-20250820

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★☆ (indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Coke: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Coking coal: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆ (indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] Core Views - The steel market is facing weak demand in the off - season, but with the rapid release of pressure, it is expected to stabilize in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the changes in the commodity market trend [2] - The iron ore market has limited fundamental contradictions in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have sufficient carbon element supply, high downstream hot metal levels, and their prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with large short - term volatility and relatively small downside space [4][6] - The silicomanganese market has good demand, and its price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and follows the trend of coking coal [7] - The ferrosilicon market has good overall demand, and its price follows the trend of silicomanganese and is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread steel's apparent demand continues to decline, production slightly decreases, and inventory accumulation accelerates; the hot - rolled coil's apparent demand improves, production slightly increases, and inventory accumulation slows down [2] - The hot metal remains at a high level, and the market still faces negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level is low [2] - From the downstream industries, domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain at a relatively high level [2] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global iron ore shipments are seasonally rising, and domestic arrivals are increasing, with port inventories continuing to rise [3] - On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel is declining, hot metal remains at a high level, and short - term iron ore demand is supported by high hot metal, but there is a production reduction expectation for hot metal in the future [3] Coke - Due to the approaching major event, there is a new expectation of production restrictions for coking plants in East China [4] - After the seventh round of price increases for coke, coking profits have improved, and daily production has slightly increased [4] - Coke inventory is decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is good [4] Coking Coal - The production of coking coal mines has decreased, the spot transaction market is at a good level, and the transaction price is mainly rising [6] - The total inventory of coking coal has decreased month - on - month, and the inventory at the production end has decreased less [6] Silicomanganese - Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of South32's Australian mines [7] - The weekly production of silicomanganese continues to increase, and the inventory has not increased yet, with good spot and futures demand [7] - Manganese ore prices have slightly decreased this week, and manufacturers have stocked up in advance due to the approaching major event [7] Ferrosilicon - Hot metal production has slightly decreased, remaining above 240 [8] - Export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact [8] - Ferrosilicon supply has increased significantly, and the spot and futures demand in the market is good, with a slight reduction in on - balance - sheet inventory [8]