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北汽蓝谷(600733):规模效应驱动盈利能力改善,看好25H2新车周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, achieving 9.517 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 154.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.308 billion yuan, an increase of 10.24% year-on-year [4][5] - The revenue growth is primarily driven by increased vehicle sales, with a total of 67,200 units sold in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 139.73% [5] - New models, including the Xiangjie S9T and the Extreme Fox T1, are expected to further boost sales, with the S9T receiving strong market recognition and pre-orders exceeding 20,000 units within 24 hours [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.744 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 156.82% and 52.24% respectively, while the net profit for the quarter was -1.355 billion yuan [5] - The average selling price per vehicle in the first half of 2025 was 141,700 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.11% [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 26.230 billion, 40.121 billion, and 52.581 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 80.75%, 52.96%, and 31.06% respectively [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -4.149 billion, -2.602 billion, and 531 million yuan for the same period [6] Valuation Metrics - As of August 18, 2025, the price-to-sales ratios are projected to be 1.95X, 1.28X, and 0.98X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The report indicates a decrease in expense ratios for sales, management, and R&D in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [8]