LPG：扭曲贸易流重塑，弱势行情已加速释放

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The previous rapid decline of PG accelerated the release of weak expectations. Currently, the marginal improvement of fundamentals and relative strength compared to crude oil indicate good realization of this expectation. The downward driving force has faded, but the rebound space is limited. The market may show a near - strong and far - weak pattern during the logistics repair process [11] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents China's LPG Import Structure Changes - During the 2018 - 2020 trade war, US propane exited the Chinese market due to a 20% tariff. By 2024, the proportion of US LPG imports in China reached a record high of 50.9%, and subsequently, trade conflicts led to fluctuations in this proportion. In March 2025, it dropped to 38.7%, and in June, it fell to 12%. It is expected to remain in the range of 35% - 40% in the short term [1][3][4] - After the expectation of a 145% tariff on US LPG in May, there was a rush to import, causing the total LPG import volume to increase after March. In June, the procurement volume declined rapidly, and the proportion of US LPG also decreased significantly [4] - In July, the total domestic import volume is expected to rebound, with the year - on - year decline narrowing from - 21% in June to - 12% in July. The proportion of US LPG in the import volume is expected to further recover to 36% in August [4] US LPG Export Changes - Since 2022, Northeast Asia, centered on China, has become the main destination for US LPG exports. In 2024, Northeast Asia accounted for 50.7% of US LPG exports, with China being the largest export destination at 15.6% [8] - In 2025, after the sharp decline in exports to China, exports to other regions such as Northeast Asia and Europe remained stable. The US redirected its exports to South Asia and Southeast Asia, with the export proportion to these two regions increasing from 9.4% in Q1 to 20.4% in Q2 [8] Market Fundamentals and Outlook - The EIA slightly increased its short - term forecast of natural gas and associated propane production, but the room for further production increase within the year is limited due to weak gas prices. The over - supply pressure remains, but the negative pressure may decline marginally [11] - In August, the Middle East CP was significantly lowered for the first time in a year, indicating the Middle East's attitude to seize the market under over - supply pressure. The previously high PG/crude oil ratio has been restored to a historical neutral level [11] - The low - price PG has stimulated the recovery of terminal demand, and the distorted trade flow has begun to repair. After the recent rapid decline of crude oil, PG has remained relatively stable, with a firm ratio [11]