白糖日报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar inventory is expected to enter a stocking phase due to the supply peak in Brazil, leading to a recent decline in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is influenced by international prices, and Zhengzhou sugar futures prices are expected to follow the trend of foreign sugar [11]. - In the short - term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be volatile, and short - term traders can consider shorting at high prices. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,727 with a gain of 11 (0.19%), SR01 at 5,676 with a gain of 15 (0.26%), and SR05 at 5,633 with a gain of 14 (0.25%). The trading volume of SR09 decreased by 11,626 to 7,025, SR01 decreased by 17,130 to 153,382, and SR05 increased by 22 to 5,472. The open interest of SR09 decreased by 3,907 to 25,928, SR01 increased by 5,283 to 343,739, and SR05 increased by 171 to 26,617 [5]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed some fluctuations. In places like Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, etc., prices changed, with Liuzhou at 6030 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Kunming at 5905 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc. The basis for different regions ranged from 178 to 643 yuan/ton [5]. - Inter - month Spreads: SR5 - SR01 spread was - 43 (down 1), SR09 - SR5 spread was 94 (down 3), and SR09 - SR01 spread was 51 (down 4) [5]. - Import Profits: For Brazilian imports, the quota - in price was 4435 yuan/ton, the quota - out price was 5648 yuan/ton, with a spread of 382 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou prices and 402 yuan/ton compared to Rizhao prices. For Thai imports, the quota - in price was 4453 yuan/ton, the quota - out price was 5671 yuan/ton, with spreads of 359 yuan/ton and 379 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Important Information: From January to July 2025, China imported 179 million tons of sugar, including 168,400 tons of white sugar and 1.6125 billion tons of raw sugar. In July, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons. From January to July 2025, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 622,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 557,600 tons [7][8][10]. - Logic Analysis: Internationally, due to the supply peak in Brazil, the global sugar inventory is expected to increase, and raw sugar prices have declined. Domestically, the production and sales of domestic sugar are fast, and the inventory is low, but a large amount of imported sugar is entering the market, and domestic sugar prices are expected to follow the international trend [11]. - Trading Strategies: In the short - term, for unilateral trading, consider shorting at high prices; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [12][13][14].