银河期货沥青日报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Long - term and medium - term oil prices are bearish. Short - term, Brent is expected to stay in the range of $65 - $67. - The fundamentals of asphalt are weak. In August, supply increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the improvement in demand was limited. The de - stocking speed of the industry chain slowed down, and the inventory level was lower than the same period last year. - The supply and demand of asphalt lack clear drivers. The price will fluctuate weakly, with lower volatility than that of crude oil. The BU main contract is expected to trade between 3450 - 3550 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Related Data - Futures Prices and Positions: On August 20, 2025, the price of BU2510 (main contract) rose by 1 yuan to 3454 yuan/ton, with a 0.03% increase. The main contract's position decreased by 0.2 million lots to 21.8 million lots, a 1.01% decline, while trading volume increased by 0.4 million lots to 14.6 million lots, a 2.85% increase. - Basis and Spread: The BU11 - 12 spread decreased by 2 yuan to 50 yuan/ton, a 3.85% decline, and the BU10 - 11 spread increased by 6 yuan to 50 yuan/ton, a 13.64% increase. The basis of Shandong - main contract, East China - main contract, and South China - main contract all increased. - Industrial Chain Spot Prices: The low - end prices in Shandong and East China and the market price in South China remained unchanged. The prices of Shandong gasoline and diesel decreased, while the price of Shandong petroleum coke remained stable. - Spread and Profit: Asphalt refinery profit decreased by 13.97 yuan to - 13.51 yuan, a 2999.02% decline. The comprehensive profit of refined oil decreased by 26.92 yuan to 469.84 yuan, a 5.42% decline [2]. 3.2 Market Research and Judgment - Market Overview - National average asphalt price on August 20 was 3816 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - In North China, rainfall limited terminal construction, and some traders cut prices. - In East China, the market preferred low - priced resources, and the high - end prices of some refineries were weakening. - In South China, demand was low, and some refineries might cut prices. - In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton, and the spot price of mainstream brands was 3540 - 3680 yuan/ton. The price of some long - term locked contracts might suppress the spot market. - In the Yangtze River Delta, the mainstream transaction price of heavy - traffic asphalt was stable at 3750 - 3800 yuan/ton. Supply might increase, but prices would likely remain stable. - In South China, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3480 - 3530 yuan/ton. Some refineries might cut prices, and short - term demand was hard to improve significantly due to rainfall [5][6]. - Market Outlook - Oil prices are bearish in the medium and long term. Short - term, Brent is expected to be in the $65 - $67 range. - The fundamentals of asphalt are weak. Supply increased in August, while demand improvement was limited. The de - stocking speed slowed down, and inventory was lower than the same period last year. - The supply and demand of asphalt lack clear drivers. The price will fluctuate weakly, with lower volatility than that of crude oil. The BU main contract is expected to trade between 3450 - 3550 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report provides six figures, including the closing price and position of the BU main contract, and the market prices of asphalt, gasoline, and diesel in East China and Shandong [9].