Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The increase in ethylene glycol plant capacity is pressuring the fundamentals, and the rebound height will continue to be limited. Although the futures and spot prices have risen, the accumulation of inventory and the narrowing of the basis may suppress further price increases. The rise in the supply - side operating rate may bring more supply, while the demand side shows no improvement, and the increasing inventory pressure may limit the upside potential of prices. The decline in positions and trading volume indicates insufficient market momentum, and the price may experience short - term fluctuations or even face downward pressure [2][3][24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Market Data: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract increased by 32 yuan/ton to 4424 yuan/ton, with a 0.73% increase. The spot price in East China rebounded by 40 yuan/ton to 4475 yuan/ton. The basis narrowed by 32 yuan/ton to 16 yuan/ton, indicating that the futures price rose faster than the spot price. The position of the main contract decreased by 17,426 lots to 115,385 lots, and the trading volume shrank by 27.6% to 80,018 lots, suggesting that some funds left the market during the price rebound [2][5]. - Supply - side: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.4% to 64.47%, with the coal - based operating rate significantly increasing by 1.1% to 65.12%, while the oil - based operating rate remained unchanged at 64.13%. Despite the coal - based profit remaining at a deep loss of - 370 yuan/ton for a week, the restart of plants promoted a marginal increase in supply [2]. - Demand - side: The load rate of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. Downstream demand was rigid but lacked growth drivers, and polyester procurement of ethylene glycol was mainly for replenishing inventory based on rigid demand [2]. - Inventory - side: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 48.57 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons. The arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, indicating that the port inventory accumulation was mainly due to the decline in shipping volume rather than concentrated arrivals. The rapidly increasing inventory pressure may suppress the increase in spot prices [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Price and Spread: The main contract price of ethylene glycol futures increased by 32 yuan/ton to 4424 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China increased by 40 yuan/ton to 4475 yuan/ton. The basis decreased from 48 to 16 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 9 yuan/ton to - 34 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [5]. - Profit and Operating Rate: The coal - based profit remained at - 370 yuan/ton. The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.4% to 64.5%, the coal - based operating rate increased by 1.1% to 65.1%, and the oil - based operating rate remained unchanged at 64.1%. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - Inventory and Arrival Volume: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 48.6 tons, the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 5.2 tons to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons [5]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 19, the spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable, with the market average price around 3990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The supply from Shaanxi remained stable, and downstream purchases were also stable. - On August 19, the mainstream market price increased slightly, but the quotes of holders in South China remained stable. The market supply was sufficient, and the overall trading atmosphere was average, with the current price around 4500 yuan/ton for delivery. - On August 19, international crude oil prices rose and then fell, and the cost - side support was unstable. The domestic operating rate of ethylene glycol increased, but the spot circulation tightened, and the basis of ethylene glycol strengthened. The current negotiated price in East China was around 4464 yuan/ton [6]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11].
乙二醇装置增量施压基本面，反弹高度继续受限
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-20 13:41