银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The unexpected sharp rise in the US PPI last week and the latest retail data showing the resilience of US consumption have continuously dampened the market's expectations for interest rate cuts for the rest of this year. The market is also waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday, with overall trading sentiment being cautious. Additionally, with the US mediation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, market expectations for the easing of geopolitical issues are increasing. Under the influence of these two factors, precious metals have declined under pressure. However, as the US is still likely to enter a "stagflation-like" situation in the future due to tariff shocks, it is advisable to wait and see for now and wait for new entry opportunities [8][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious Metals Market: During the day, the prices of precious metals diverged. London gold slightly recovered the previous day's decline, trading around $3,323, while London silver fell again, trading around $37.1. Driven by external markets, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.35% at 772.68 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.86% at 9,042 yuan per kilogram [3]. - US Dollar Index: The US dollar index fluctuated within a narrow range, trading around 98.3 [4]. - US Treasury Yield: The yield of the 10-year US Treasury note consolidated at a high level, trading around 4.32% [5]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: The RMB strengthened slightly against the US dollar, trading around 7.179 [6]. Important Information - Geopolitical Conflicts: The White House is considering hosting a summit between Russian and Ukrainian leaders in Hungary. The US and Europe will immediately start providing security guarantees to Ukraine to comprehensively enhance its military strength and combat capabilities [7]. - Fed Watch: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 13.9%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 86.1%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 6.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 47.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 46% [7]. Logic Analysis The unexpected sharp rise in the US PPI last week and the resilience of US consumption have dampened market expectations for interest rate cuts. The market is waiting for Powell's speech, and trading sentiment is cautious. The expected easing of geopolitical issues has also put pressure on precious metals. However, the risk of "stagflation-like" in the US in the future remains, so it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Trading Strategies - Single Position: Wait and see for now [11]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12]. - Options: Wait and see for now [13]. Data Reference - US Dollar Index and Precious Metal Prices: Charts show the historical trends of the US dollar index against London gold and London silver [15][16]. - Real Yield and Precious Metal Prices: Charts show the historical trends of real yields against London gold and London silver [18][23]. - Domestic and Foreign Futures Prices: Charts show the historical trends of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures prices [20][22]. - Futures and Spot Prices: Charts show the historical trends of the price differences between futures and spot gold and silver [25][26]. - Domestic and Foreign Price Differences: Charts show the historical trends of the price differences between domestic and foreign gold and silver [28][30]. - Gold-Silver Ratio: Charts show the historical trends of the gold-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex [36][38]. - ETF Holdings: Charts show the historical trends of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF holdings [40][41]. - Futures Open Interest: Charts show the historical trends of gold and silver futures open interest [42][43]. - Futures Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of gold and silver futures inventory [44][46]. - Trading Volume: Charts show the historical trends of trading volume of Shanghai gold and silver futures [47][49]. - TD Data: Charts show the historical trends of gold and silver TD deferred fees and delivery volumes [51][56]. - Treasury Yield and Breakeven Inflation Rate: Charts show the historical trends of nominal interest rates, inflation expectations, real interest rates, and US Treasury yields [55].