2025年1~7月财政数据点评：公共财政收支增速差收窄

Revenue Analysis - In the first seven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 135,839 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%[3] - Tax revenue showed a narrowing decline, with individual income tax increasing by 8.8%, significantly higher than the overall tax growth rate[3] - Non-tax revenue growth slowed down compared to the previous months, indicating challenges in asset management by local governments[3] Expenditure Analysis - Public fiscal expenditure for the same period was CNY 160,737 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[4] - Social security and employment expenditures grew by 9.8%, highlighting a focus on livelihood over infrastructure[4] - Infrastructure spending continued to decline, with negative growth in urban and rural community investments[4] Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue decreased by 0.7%, while expenditures surged by 31.7%, primarily due to accelerated disbursement of special bonds[5] - The overall broad fiscal expenditure (public fiscal expenditure + government fund expenditure) increased by 9.3% year-on-year[5] Fiscal Progress - By July 2025, the national general public budget revenue completion rate was 61.8%, below the five-year average of 63.5%[3] - Public fiscal expenditure completion rate stood at 54.1%, also lower than the five-year average of 54.7%[4] Risk Factors - Economic environment changes could significantly impact tax revenue bases, while unexpected policy changes may alter fiscal expenditure patterns[6]