银河期货尿素日报-20250820

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic urea market currently has a loose supply situation, with the daily output reaching around 195,000 tons, at a record high for the same period. The overall demand is declining, with low enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in central and northern China, and limited domestic demand in the short - term. However, India's new tender for 2 million tons of urea with a shipping date at the end of October provides some support to the domestic market under the relaxed export policy. The spot market sentiment is generally stable, and some regions may see price adjustments [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures opened lower and trended downward, closing at 1,776 yuan (-13/-0.73%) [3]. - Spot Market: The ex - factory prices rose with average trading volume. Ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1,720 - 1,740 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized particles 1,720 - 1,740 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized particles 1,730 - 1,740 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized particles 1,650 - 1,660 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized particles 1,740 - 1,750 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1,580 - 1,640 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information On August 20, the daily output of the urea industry was 195,200 tons, 1,800 tons less than the previous working day (revised to 196,800 tons) and 27,200 tons more than the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 84.33%, 8.14% higher than 76.19% in the same period last year [4]. Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment and Price Trends: In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory prices led the increase, with general market sentiment. In Henan, the market sentiment was low, and the ex - factory prices followed the increase. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory prices were weakly stable, and the market atmosphere cooled. Overall, it is expected that the ex - factory prices in Shandong and Henan will remain stable, while those around the delivery area may decline [5]. - Supply and Demand: The supply is loose, with the average daily output returning to around 195,000 tons. The demand is weak, as the compound fertilizer industry in central and northern China has low enthusiasm, and the grass - roots have no intention to stock up. The compound fertilizer plants' inventory can last for more than half a month, and the demand for raw materials is low. The urea production enterprise inventory increased by 66,500 tons to around 1.0239 million tons, remaining at a high level [5]. - Impact of Indian Tender: India's new tender for 2 million tons of urea with a shipping date at the end of October provides some support to the domestic market under the relaxed export policy. However, when the ex - factory prices rise to around 1,750 yuan/ton, the downstream starts to wait and see [5]. Trading Strategy - Single - sided Trading: Buy on dips, do not chase the market [6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell put options on pullbacks [9].