Report Overview - Report Title: Supply and Demand Improve, but the Actual Magnitude is Limited. Lithium Carbonate is Difficult to Maintain Long - Term and Significant Increases - Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain Weekly Data Report [1] - Report Date: August 20, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine has brought lithium carbonate prices to a new level, and the marginal change from passive inventory accumulation to passive inventory depletion in lithium carbonate supply and demand has significantly improved the market expectations in the first half of the year, with the price center expected to rise. However, the expected annual inventory depletion of 1 - 2 million tons after the shutdown is limited compared to the current market inventory of 14 million tons. If the market continues to rise significantly, it may open the profit window for imported lithium mines such as those from Australia and Africa, quickly making up for the supply reduction caused by the shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine and attracting hedging funds, so it may experience short - term significant increases but is difficult to maintain in the long term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Report Summary 3.1.1 Fundamental Overview - Lithium Ore: The price of spodumene has risen rapidly, leading the increase in ore prices. Affected by administrative orders in Jiangxi and Qinghai, the operating rates of lithium mica and salt lake sectors have significantly declined in July. After the confirmation of the shutdown of Jianxiawo, the market demand for lithium mica has significantly decreased, and the price of spodumene, as an alternative, has led the increase in the lithium ore market. Attention should be paid to the quantity of imported spodumene supplemented due to high prices [3]. - Lithium Salt: It has continued to take advantage of the situation, and the upper integer price levels may be the targets of long - positions. The news of the shutdown of Jianxiawo last week pushed the lithium carbonate LC futures contract to the price range of 80,000 yuan. The marginal reduction may change the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand from passive inventory accumulation to passive inventory depletion. The market long - positions continue to take advantage of the market rumors of the shutdown of the salt lake sector to drive up prices, with the upper levels of 90,000 and 100,000 yuan being the next targets of long - positions. However, with a high inventory of 14 million tons, it is difficult for lithium carbonate to maintain high prices in the long term [3]. - Cathode Materials and Lithium Batteries: The impact of anti - involution is gradually fading. The impact of anti - involution focused on the new energy vehicle market is gradually fading. Recently, lithium carbonate has been indirectly affected by the sentiment of industries such as photovoltaics, with limited substantial impact [3]. 3.1.2 Market Summary - The shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine has brought lithium carbonate prices to a new level. The marginal change in supply and demand has improved market expectations, but the expected inventory depletion is limited compared to the current inventory. If the market rises significantly, it may attract imported lithium mines and hedging funds, making it difficult to maintain long - term high prices [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet - Slowing Inventory Accumulation - From July 2024 to July 2025, the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the supply was 81,530 tons, demand was 96,275 tons, import was 18,000 tons, export was 573 tons, inventory change was 2,682 tons, and the cumulative balance was 164,565 tons [8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Hydroxide Balance Sheet - From August 2024 to July 2025, the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium hydroxide also showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the supply was 25,170 tons, demand was 22,969 tons, import was 750 tons, export was 6,100 tons, inventory change was - 3,149 tons, and the cumulative balance was 25,163 tons [12]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply, Demand, and Price 3.3.1 Spodumene Import - From December 2023 to June 2025, the import volume and average import price of lithium concentrate from different countries (Australia, Brazil, etc.) showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the total import volume was 427,626 tons, with 255,506 tons from Australia and 39,811 tons from Brazil, and the average import price was 639 US dollars per ton [19]. 3.3.2 Chinese Lithium Ore - Spodumene Quotation Leading the Increase - From December 2023 to July 2025, the production of sample lithium mica mines and spodumene mines showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production of lithium mica was 16,100 tons with a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%, and the production of spodumene was 6,500 tons with a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [24]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply, Demand, and Price 3.4.1 Lithium Salt Spot and Futures Prices - Obvious Impact of Lithium Ore Shutdown - From July 1, 2025, to August 15, 2025, the prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the price differences between them showed different trends. For example, on August 15, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,000 yuan, industrial - grade was 83,000 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide was 77,875 yuan, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1,000 yuan, and the difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 6,125 yuan [27]. 3.4.2 Production Cost and Profit - Spodumene Expected to Supplement Market Gap - From July 9, 2025, to August 15, 2025, the production costs and profits of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene, low - grade mica, and high - grade mica showed different trends. For example, on August 15, 2025, the production cost of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 73,053 yuan per ton, with a profit of 10,947 yuan; the production cost from low - grade mica was 91,674 yuan per ton, with a loss of 7,674 yuan; and the production cost from high - grade mica was 53,983 yuan per ton, with a profit of 30,017 yuan [41]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate Production - From July 2023 to July 2025, the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the total monthly production was 81,530 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month increase of 4% [50]. 3.4.4 Operating Rate - Obvious Decline in Operating Rates of Mica and Salt Lake Sectors in July - From July 2022 to July 2025, the operating rates of lithium salt, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The operating rates of lithium carbonate production from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake) also showed different trends [52][55]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate Monthly Import Volume - From December 2021 to June 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate and the import volumes from Argentina and Chile showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the total import volume was 17,698 tons, with 5,094 tons from Argentina and 11,853 tons from Chile [60]. 3.4.6 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - Attention Needed on the Sustainability of Inventory Depletion - From December 2022 to July 2025, the inventory of lithium carbonate in downstream and smelting plants, weekly inventory, and the number of registered futures warehouse receipts showed different trends [62][63][65]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand 3.5.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Slowing Production Growth - From November 2019 to July 2025, the production and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production was 290,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.00% and a month - on - month increase of 1.86%, and the operating rate was 57.00% [70]. 3.5.2 Ternary Materials Production and Operating Rate - From December 2023 to July 2025, the production and operating rate of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production was 68,640 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.70% and a month - on - month increase of 5.80% [75]. 3.5.3 Ternary Materials Import and Export Volume - From December 2021 to June 2025, the import, export, and net import volumes of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the import volume was 5,349 tons, the export volume was 10,636 tons, and the net import volume was - 5,287 tons [80]. 3.5.4 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From November 2021 to July 2025, the production of pure - electric vehicles, plug - in hybrid vehicles, and the inventory warning index of automobile dealers showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production of pure - electric vehicles was 807,000, the production of plug - in hybrid vehicles was 436,000, and the inventory warning index was 57.2 [81].
碳酸锂产业链周度数据报告：供需好转但实际幅度有限，碳酸锂难以维持长期大幅上涨-20250820
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-20 14:04