策略展望：聚焦反内卷投资主线

Group 1: Investment Strategy - The "anti-involution" investment logic is based on the capital cycle framework, which reveals the dynamic relationship between industry profitability and capital investment[8] - The essence of the "anti-involution" trend is the recovery of profitability driven by supply-side clearing and increased industry concentration[9] - Historical experiences validate the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" strategy, particularly in industries like home appliances and engineering machinery, where supply clearing led to profitability recovery[9] Group 2: Market Conditions - Current recommended industries focus on significant supply contraction and potential recovery in capacity utilization, particularly in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy vehicles[10] - The capital expenditure trend is long-term declining, indicating a shift towards supply-side constraints and potential profitability recovery[10] - The market often underestimates the intensity and sustainability of profitability recovery during the "anti-involution" phase, focusing too much on short-term demand fluctuations[9] Group 3: Risk Factors - Risks include significant fluctuations in listed companies' profitability and uncertainties related to overseas monetary policies and geopolitical conflicts[8]