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超长信用债继续降温
SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-08-20 14:20
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In a volatile bond market, it is more appropriate to adopt a defensive strategy, and participation in ultra - long - duration assets needs to wait for a recovery market [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Super - long Credit Bonds Continue to Cool Down 3.1.1 Stock Market Characteristics This week (August 11 - 15, 2025), the market risk preference switched again, the bond market reversed, and super - long credit bonds were affected. Compared with last week, the yields of existing super - long credit bonds declined, and the number of super - long credit bonds with yields between 2.2% - 2.3% increased significantly [3][14]. 3.1.2 Primary Issuance Situation This week, the issuance scale of new super - long credit bonds totaled 15.97 billion yuan, with the supply basically flat compared to last week. The average issuance rate of new super - long urban investment bonds rose to 2.6%, while the coupon rate of new super - long industrial bonds hovered around 2.3%. In the current bond market environment with high volatility, the primary pricing of new super - long credit bonds deviates slightly from the cash bond market, which may be the reason for the continuous increase in the subscription enthusiasm for new bonds of this variety in the past two weeks [4][23]. 3.1.3 Secondary Trading Performance - Index Performance: There was another sharp decline in the bond market this week. The index of government bonds with a maturity of over 10 years dropped by 1.64%, and the index of AA + credit bonds with a maturity of over 10 years, although with a smaller decline than long - term interest - rate bonds, still had an absolute decline of over 0.5% [5][30]. - Trading Sentiment: The trading sentiment of super - long credit bonds was sluggish. The decline of super - long credit bonds was difficult to control, and the liquidity of this variety significantly weakened. The number of trading transactions of industrial bonds with a maturity of over 10 years dropped to less than 40 this week. The trading volume of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds also decreased by nearly half compared to mid - July. In terms of trading yields, the callback amplitude of the yields of 7 - 10 - year long - term credit bonds was greater than 6bp, while the increase in the yields of general credit bonds with a maturity of over 10 years was relatively low [5][32]. - Valuation and Buying Sentiment: This week, the high - valuation trading amplitude of super - long credit bonds widened significantly, approaching the level during the adjustment period in late July. In terms of buying sentiment, the proportion of TKN transactions of 7 - 10 - year credit bonds continued to decline to 67% [5][36]. - Investor Structure: Due to the impact on the liability side, funds reduced their holdings of credit bonds with a maturity of over 7 years by 2.19 billion yuan this week. Insurance companies continued to buy long - term bonds and increased their holdings of super - long credit bonds by over 4 billion yuan this week [5][41]. - Credit Spread: From a more microscopic perspective, the trends of the credit spreads between active super - long credit bonds of various maturities and government bonds of similar maturities showed slight differentiation this week. The credit spreads of active super - long credit bonds with a maturity of 15 years or less continued to widen, while the credit spreads of long - term credit bonds with a maturity of over 15 years significantly narrowed [6].