聚酯链日报：成本偏弱&需求预期谨慎，PTA价格偏弱震荡-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PTA price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to weak cost and cautious demand expectations. The supply of PX and PTA may increase due to high - device operation rates and new production capacities, while the demand lacks strong support, and inventory may accumulate, putting downward pressure on prices. However, seasonal changes in demand and device changes need to be monitored [1][38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On August 19, the PX主力contract closed at 6,774.0 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 165.0 yuan/ton. The PTA主力contract closed at 4,734.0 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 64.0 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost - end: On August 19, the Brent crude oil主力contract closed at 66.46 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 62.58 US dollars/barrel. The demand - end: On August 19, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 487.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 485.47 million meters [2]. - Supply side: The operation rates of PX and PTA devices remain high, and with the gradual implementation of new production capacities, the pressure of increased industry supply may continue to be released. The cost - end drive of PX is weak under the background of low - level fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the processing fees of PTA are suppressed by over - capacity, and the willingness of factories to increase production may further exacerbate the supply - loosening situation [2]. - Demand side: The transactions in the Light Textile City maintain a weak and stable pattern. Although the downstream polyester operation rate has not weakened significantly, the fabric orders lack substantial improvement. The traditional textile peak season is approaching, but the demand has not shown a continuous improvement, and the terminal negative feedback pressure continues to be transmitted upstream, making it difficult for the PTA demand side to form effective support [2]. - Inventory side: The PTA factory inventory is restricted by the weak basis structure, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. Currently, there are not many active production - reduction actions by factories, and there is still pressure on the price ceiling [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 19, the short - fiber主力contract closed at 6,432.0 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,500.0 yuan/ton, up 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 68.0 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply side: The PX price has recently shown high - level fluctuations (ranging from 6,614 to 6,832 yuan/ton from August 11 - 19), but the PTA price has risen steadily (up 1.4% to 4,746 yuan/ton during the same period), indicating that the cost - end support is weakening but the downstream acceptance is good [4]. - Demand side: The 15 - day moving average transaction volume of the Light Textile City has continuously rebounded from 479 million meters to 485 million meters, reflecting the gradual recovery of terminal textile demand [4]. - Inventory side: There is a structural differentiation in inventory. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber (7.25 days) are significantly higher than the five - year average (4.96 days), while the inventory of polyester filament POY (16.1 days) is lower than the average (20.4 days), and the inventory of FDY/DTY is basically the same as the historical average. The high - inventory pressure of short - fiber may restrict the overall increase, and continue to pay attention to polyester production - reduction information [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 6,774 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day; the成交volume increased by 68.14%, and the持仓volume increased by 6.83%. PX spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 833.33 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price in South Korea increased by 0.25% [5]. - PTA futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 4,734 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day; the成交volume decreased by 16.25%, and the持仓volume decreased by 2.41%. PTA spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 623 US dollars/ton [5]. - Short - fiber futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 6,432 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous day; the成交volume increased by 7.48%, and the持仓volume decreased by 0.53%. Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market increased by 0.08% [5]. - Other prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle flakes, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged or changed slightly on August 19 compared with the previous day [5]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha decreased by 1.09%, and the processing spreads of PTA decreased by 1.57%, while the processing spreads of other products remained unchanged [6]. - Light Textile City transaction volume: On August 19, the total transaction volume was 487 million meters, a decrease of 4.32% compared with the previous day, with the long - fiber fabric volume decreasing by 2.72% and the short - fiber fabric volume decreasing by 9.71% [6]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on August 19 [6]. - Inventory days: From August 7 to August 14, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY all decreased [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 19, due to the UK inflation data being higher than expected, traders reduced their bets on the Bank of England's interest - rate cuts, believing that there would be no further cuts this year [7]. - On August 18, Fed's Daly said to wait for more data, and the number of interest - rate cuts may be less or more. It is still a good prediction to cut interest rates twice this year; Goolsbee said that the latest PPI and CPI inflation data were disturbing. If signs show that inflation is not in a spiral in September or later in the fall, interest rates can be cut. The market reduced its bets on interest - rate cuts but still expected a cut in September and another cut in 2025 [7]. - On August 18, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan said that the plan for Hong Kong to develop an international gold trading center would be announced within the year [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On August 19, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 487.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%, with the long - fiber fabric transaction volume at 393.0 million meters and the short - fiber fabric transaction volume at 93.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including PX and PTA主力futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization, PTA futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester short - fiber and long - fiber sales situations, Light Textile City transaction volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [9][11][13].