Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Jinmao [3][8] Core Views - China Jinmao is undergoing significant changes, including new management, cost reduction, and operational efficiency improvements. The company is backed by its major shareholder, Sinochem Group, which has increased its financial support significantly [7][8] - The company has outperformed the industry in land acquisition and sales, ranking 4th in land acquisition and 9th in sales as of July 2025, with a projected sales target of 110 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.9% [7][8] - The company has adequately provisioned for impairments, gradually alleviating historical burdens, and has introduced a new product line, "Jin Yu Man Tang," which has been well-received in the market [7][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for China Jinmao are as follows: - 2023: 72.404 billion yuan - 2024: 59.053 billion yuan - 2025E: 49.620 billion yuan - 2026E: 44.037 billion yuan - 2027E: 39.390 billion yuan - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 0.701 billion yuan in 2024, 0.738 billion yuan in 2025, 0.792 billion yuan in 2026, and 0.869 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 110.2%, 5.2%, 7.3%, and 9.7% [6][8] Key Changes - Change 1: New management has been appointed, focusing on cost reduction and operational benchmarks. The new CEO, Tao Tianhai, has a history of rapid expansion in the East China region, which now contributes 40% of the company's sales [7][18] - Change 2: Sinochem Group, the major shareholder, has increased its financial support to the company by 25.6 billion yuan, highlighting the company's importance within the group [7][20][22] - Change 3: The company has significantly outperformed the industry in land acquisition and sales, with a sales amount of 61.8 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [7][27] - Change 4: The company has made substantial impairment provisions since 2020, totaling 17.5 billion yuan, which is higher than the industry average [7][49] - Change 5: The introduction of the "Jin Yu Man Tang" product line has set new benchmarks for quality housing, with several projects achieving rapid sales [7][50] Valuation and Target Price - The report estimates a target market value of 31.3 billion HKD for China Jinmao, based on a price-to-book ratio of 0.75x, reflecting the company's anticipated growth in sales and profitability [7][8]
中国金茂（00817）：积极转变，焕新启航