2025年8月第3周：债市基本面高频数据跟踪报告：集运运价指数跌势放缓

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Economic growth shows a slowdown in the decline of container shipping freight rate indices, with power plant daily consumption falling from a high level, and demand - side indicators showing mixed trends [1][4]. - Inflation presents a situation where pork prices are slowly falling at a low level, and there are fluctuations in CPI and PPI components [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Slowdown in the Decline of Container Shipping Freight Rate Indices 1.1 Production: Power Plant Daily Consumption Falls from a High Level - Power plant daily consumption has declined. On August 19, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 912,000 tons, a 4.5% drop from August 12. On August 14, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.369 million tons, a 5.3% drop from August 6 [4][11]. - Blast furnace operating rates fluctuated slightly. On August 15, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from August 8, while the capacity utilization rate was 90.2%, up 0.2 percentage points. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills remained flat at 92.6% [4][17]. - Tire operating rates were weakly stable. On August 14, the operating rate of truck - used all - steel tires was 63.1%, up 2.1 percentage points from August 7, and that of car - used semi - steel tires was 72.1%, down 2.3 percentage points [4][19]. 1.2 Demand: Slowdown in the Decline of Container Shipping Freight Rate Indices - The decline in the month - on - month sales of new homes in 30 cities slowed down. From August 1 to 19, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 179,000 square meters, down 6.1% from July, 15.0% from August last year, and 32.4% from August 2023 [4][24]. - The retail sales of the auto market are gradually picking up. In August, retail sales increased by 2% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 20% year - on - year [4][27]. - Steel prices generally fell. On August 19, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled prices decreased by 3.5%, 3.1%, 2.8%, and 0.2% respectively compared to August 12 [4][32]. - Cement prices generally rebounded. On August 19, the national cement price index rose 1.4% from August 12, with prices in East China and the Yangtze River region rising 4.4% and 4.3% respectively [4][33]. - Glass prices stopped falling and rebounded. On August 19, the active glass futures contract price was 1,215 yuan/ton, up 13.9% from August 12 [4][37]. - The decline of container shipping freight rate indices slowed down. On August 15, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% from August 8, and the SCFI index decreased by 2.0% [4][40]. 2. Inflation: Slow Fall of Pork Prices at a Low Level 2.1 CPI: Slow Fall of Pork Prices at a Low Level - Pork prices are slowly falling at a low level. On August 19, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.2 yuan/kg, a 0.2% drop from August 12 [4][46]. - The agricultural product price index is slowly rising. On August 19, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.8% from August 12, with different fluctuations in various varieties [4][51]. 2.2 PPI: Weak Fluctuation of Oil Prices - Oil prices are weakly fluctuating. On August 19, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $67.6 and $62.4 per barrel respectively, down 0.01% and 1.3% from August 12 [4][54]. - Copper and aluminum prices declined. On August 19, the LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices decreased by 0.2% and 1.4% respectively compared to August 12 [4][58]. - The month - on - month increase of the domestic commodity index narrowed. On August 19, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 2.5% from August 12, and the CRB index decreased by 0.3% from August 11 [4][58].