格林大华期货早盘提示-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for macro and financial index futures, including IM, IC, IF, IH [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - The major indices of the two markets on Wednesday first declined and then rose, with the chip sector surging in the afternoon and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high in this round. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.40 trillion yuan. The inflow of continuous funds will drive the stock market to maintain an upward trend [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The major indices of the two markets on Wednesday first declined and then rose, with the chip sector surging in the afternoon and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high in this round. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.40 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7305 points, up 62 points or 0.86%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6728 points, up 72 points or 1.09%; the SSE 300 Index closed at 4271 points, up 48 points or 1.14%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2846 points, up 34 points or 1.23%. Among industry and theme ETFs, the top gainers were Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF, Artificial Intelligence ETF Science and Technology Innovation, Chip 50 ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Information ETF, and Semiconductor Equipment ETF, while the top losers were Financial Technology ETF, Film and Television ETF, and Biological Vaccine ETF. Among the sector indices of the two markets, the top gainers were commercial vehicles, chemical fibers, semiconductors, hotel and catering, and optical and optoelectronic indices, while the top losers were navigation equipment, ground military equipment, radio and television, film and television theater chains, and CXO concept indices. The settlement funds of CSI 1000, SSE 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 index futures had net inflows of 9.9 billion, 3.6 billion, 3.4 billion, and 0.8 billion yuan respectively [1]. 3.2 Important Information - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 28 have risen overall this year. The top five gainers are the communication, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceutical and biological, machinery and equipment, and comprehensive industries, with annual increases of over 20%. The communication and non-ferrous metals industries have both increased by over 30% [1]. - As of the close on August 18, among the 5424 A-share stocks, 4514 have risen overall this year, accounting for 83%. 360 stocks have doubled this year, accounting for 6.6% [1]. - Overseas capacity construction has shifted its focus to equipment procurement. The imports of production equipment such as milling machines and grinding machines in the US, India, Malaysia, etc. have significantly increased since the second half of 2024, and the imports of generators and transformers are also picking up [1]. - Wall Street traders are buying a large number of "disaster puts" on the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, seemingly worried about a repeat of the sell-off in April [1]. - A MIT report states that "95% of organizations have received zero returns on their generative AI investments," combined with a bubble warning from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, causing investors to flee high-momentum technology stocks and move to defensive sectors [1]. - Japan's export data for July reflects the continuous impact of tariffs. Japan's exports of automobiles and parts to the US decreased by 28.4% and 17.4% respectively, and exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment decreased by 31.3%. Economists warn that Japan may fall into a recession [2]. - The US government has quietly expanded the scope of steel and aluminum tariffs, adding over 400 product categories with a 50% tariff rate, which will add more cost-push inflation pressure [2]. - The US Commerce Secretary is exploring how to obtain more equity in major chip manufacturers through the Chip Act funds. If the equity-for-subsidy model is fully implemented, the US government will become an important shareholder in major global chip manufacturers [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - The major indices of the two markets on Wednesday first declined and then rose, with the chip sector surging in the afternoon and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high in this round. Hedge funds' net purchases of Chinese stocks last week reached the highest in seven weeks, making China the market with the largest net capital inflow on the Goldman Sachs platform since August [1][2]. 3.4 Future Market Outlook - The major indices of the two markets on Wednesday first declined and then rose, with the chip sector surging in the afternoon and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high in this round. As of the close on August 18, among the 5424 A-share stocks, 4514 have risen overall this year, accounting for 83%. 360 stocks have doubled this year, accounting for 6.6%. Hedge funds' net purchases of Chinese stocks last week reached the highest in seven weeks, making China the market with the largest net capital inflow on the Goldman Sachs platform since August. Goldman Sachs believes that China's humanoid robot industry is undergoing product iterations at an astonishing speed, and the commercialization path is becoming increasingly clear. The chief strategist of Bank of America believes that the Fed may deal with debt through currency depreciation, making shorting the US dollar the core investment theme. Gold, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and emerging markets will be the biggest winners. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has risen to 100%. The "de-Americanization" of global financial asset reallocation is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into the A-share market. The short-term technical index correction has ended, and the major indices of the two markets have entered an upward phase again. Continuous capital inflows will drive the stock market to maintain an upward trend [1][2]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - For index futures directional trading, the short-term technical index correction has ended, and the major indices of the two markets have entered an upward phase again. Continuous capital inflows will drive the stock market to maintain an upward trend [2]. - For index option trading, with continuous capital inflows, investors can choose to buy out-of-the-money long-term call options on growth index futures [3].