光大证券晨会速递-20250821

Macro Insights - The expansion of the US steel and aluminum tariffs is expected to increase import tariffs from China and globally by 1.3% and 1.1% respectively, with the second batch of steel and aluminum derivatives set to take effect in January 2026 [2] - The US domestic demand decline may indirectly affect China's exports to other countries, while the substitution effect of US steel is limited [2] Fiscal Policy - In July, tax revenue growth accelerated, indicating an improvement in public budget revenue structure [3] - The land market remains sluggish, leading to weak growth in government fund revenue, which is significantly below the initial budget [3] - Infrastructure investment is rebounding, supported by the commencement of major projects, which is beneficial for domestic investment [3] Company Research Real Estate - Wanwu Cloud (2602.HK) reported H1 2025 revenue of 18.14 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year, and a core net profit of 1.32 billion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year, with a mid-term dividend of 1.1 billion yuan, accounting for 83% of core net profit [5] Chemical Industry - Yuntianhua (600096.SH) achieved H1 2025 revenue of 24.992 billion yuan, down 21.88% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.761 billion yuan, down 2.81% year-on-year, with an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [6] Oil and Gas - CNOOC Development (600968.SH) reported H1 2025 total revenue of 22.6 billion yuan, up 4.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.83 billion yuan, up 13.1% year-on-year, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 maintained [7] Steel - CITIC Special Steel (000708.SZ) maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 5.590 billion, 6.236 billion, and 6.825 billion yuan, with expectations of improved profitability due to product structure optimization and accelerated overseas projects [9] Building Materials - Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ) reported H1 2025 revenue of 13.56 billion yuan, down 0.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.93 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted downwards [10] High-end Manufacturing - Haitian International (1882.HK) achieved H1 2025 net profit of 1.71 billion yuan, up 12.6% year-on-year, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 maintained [11] Automotive - XPeng Motors (XPEV.N) is approaching a profitability inflection point, with expectations of improved gross margins and sales growth, leading to upward revisions of profit forecasts for 2026-2027 [12] Electrical New Energy - Siyuan Electric (002028.SZ) reported H1 2025 revenue of 8.497 billion yuan, up 37.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.293 billion yuan, up 45.71% year-on-year, with strong growth in overseas revenue [13] Technology - Jiayuan Technology (688388.SH) has revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 105 million, 274 million, and 524 million yuan, with a focus on solid-state batteries and high-end PCB copper foil [14] Internet Media - Meitu Company (1357.HK) focuses on subscription growth, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 increased to 960 million, 1.24 billion, and 1.52 billion yuan [15] Overseas TMT - Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) reported Q2 2025 revenue of 116 billion yuan, up 30% year-on-year, with a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [16] Pharmaceuticals - Kingsray Biotechnology (1548.HK) reported H1 2025 revenue of 519 million USD, with a significant recovery in business and a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [17] Travel Services - Tongcheng Travel (0780.HK) reported Q2 2025 revenue of 4.669 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 maintained [19] Food and Beverage - Yanghe Distillery (002304.SZ) reported H1 2025 revenue of 14.796 billion yuan, down 35.32% year-on-year, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 maintained [20] Light Industry - Wuzhou Special Paper (605007.SH) maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expectations of improved profitability due to price recovery [21] - Zhongshun Jierou (002511.SZ) has raised profit forecasts for 2025-2027, focusing on high-end product layout [22]