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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The profit bottom of the chemical industry has emerged or is approaching. Chemical stocks are more certain investment targets than chemical futures. The absolute price of chemical futures will be stronger than that of raw materials in the near - term, and the profit margin will not be compressed further [3]. - The overall energy and chemical market has returned to a volatile state, and it is still difficult for prices to rise as the actual supply - demand situation has not changed [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - International crude oil futures continued to fluctuate and consolidate on Wednesday night. The "Friendship" pipeline has fully resumed normal operation. Russia sells oil to India at a discount of about 5%. The crack spread of refined oil has strengthened recently [2]. - On August 20th, Bloomberg reported that the Chinese government plans to comprehensively adjust the petrochemical industry, including eliminating small - scale facilities, upgrading old facilities, and shifting investment to new special materials. South Korea's finance minister announced that South Korean petrochemical companies will cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity annually [3]. 3.2 Performance and Outlook of Each Variety 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Viewpoint: U.S. inventory is favorable, but the upside space for oil prices is expected to be limited. - Main Logic: EIA data shows strong demand in the U.S. refining sector last week, with rising exports and falling imports, and a decline in commercial crude oil inventories. However, in the future, crude oil inventories will face double pressure from the peak - to - decline of refinery operations and the accelerated production increase of OPEC+. - Outlook: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and short - term disturbances from the Russia - Ukraine negotiation should be noted [9]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - Viewpoint: The asphalt futures price has shifted from a decline to a volatile state. - Main Logic: EIA has significantly lowered the oil price forecast, and the geopolitical premium has declined. However, the cost of asphalt is supported by the increase in oil prices due to the attack on the Druzhba pipeline. The supply shortage has been alleviated, but the demand is still not optimistic. - Outlook: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as the number of warehouse receipts increases [10]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: The geopolitical premium has returned, and high - sulfur fuel oil has slightly increased in a volatile manner. - Main Logic: EIA has lowered the oil price forecast and raised the OPEC production forecast. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The attack on Russian refineries has led to a return of the geopolitical premium, but the overall supply exceeds demand. - Outlook: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease. The price will fluctuate weakly [11]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates following the crude oil price. - Main Logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil. Although it is driven by the increase in the diesel crack spread, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. - Outlook: It will fluctuate following the crude oil price due to low valuation [13]. 3.2.5 Methanol - Viewpoint: The news boosts the price, but the actual impact is limited, and the methanol futures price fluctuates. - Main Logic: The domestic chemical capacity policy news boosts the price, but the number of old methanol production capacities is small, so the actual impact is limited. The decline in oil prices has put pressure on downstream olefins, which has a传导 effect on methanol. - Outlook: Short - term volatility [29]. 3.2.6 Urea - Viewpoint: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price fluctuates and consolidates. - Main Logic: The spot price has increased following the futures price, but the futures price has slightly declined as the market sentiment has returned to calm. Downstream buyers are still cautious and waiting for the official export to India. - Outlook: The market sentiment has a short - term impact, and the long - term trend will return to the fundamentals of loose supply and demand [30]. 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Viewpoint: Stimulated by petrochemical news, the price is supported. - Main Logic: Although the fundamentals change little, the macro - sentiment has a significant impact, driving the price up in the afternoon. The policy of eliminating backward production capacity boosts the confidence of long - position holders. - Outlook: The price will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the EG09 - 01 reverse spread strategy [22]. 3.2.8 PX - Viewpoint: The oil price has stabilized slightly, and the sentiment in the domestic chemical market has warmed up again, strengthening the short - term support. - Main Logic: The crude oil price fluctuates and consolidates, and the decline slows down. The market reacts strongly to the anti - involution policy news in the chemical industry. South Korea's reduction of naphtha cracking capacity is expected to affect overseas imports. - Outlook: Fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the support at the price of 6600 [14]. 3.2.9 PTA - Viewpoint: Disturbed by petrochemical news, the market atmosphere has warmed up, and the support has strengthened. - Main Logic: PTA follows the rise of PX as the cost is stronger. The market sentiment in the chemical industry has warmed up, and the anti - involution expectation drives up the price. Although the downstream filament sales have declined, the chip sales have improved. - Outlook: Fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of major plant maintenance in August [14]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - Viewpoint: It fluctuates following the upstream cost. - Main Logic: The absolute price follows the upstream cost. The supply - demand situation is stable, and the processing margin is slightly repaired. The limited new production capacity and the expected increase in peak - season demand will support the price. - Outlook: Fluctuation and consolidation in the short term [23]. 3.2.11 Bottle Chip - Viewpoint: The cost provides some support, but its own driving force is limited. - Main Logic: The price follows the upstream polymerization cost and fluctuates upward. The market sentiment in the domestic chemical industry has warmed up, and the price is expected to be supported. The inventory is expected to decline slowly as the major manufacturers continue to cut production. - Outlook: Fluctuation, and the absolute price follows the raw materials [25]. 3.2.12 PP - Viewpoint: Stimulated by the news at noon, but the fundamental support is limited, and PP fluctuates. - Main Logic: The news of plant maintenance to solve the petrochemical over - capacity problem stimulates the price, but the actual impact is limited. The oil price fluctuates in the short term, and the propane price is low, which suppresses the PP valuation. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is still in the off - peak to peak - season transition period，with low operating rates in related industries. - Outlook: Short - term fluctuation [32]. 3.2.13 Propylene (PL) - Viewpoint: PL fluctuates following PP in the short term. - Main Logic: Although the local supply has decreased, the market is still in a wait - and - see state. The downstream buyers mainly purchase for rigid demand. The PP - PL processing margin is around 600, which is considered reasonable. - Outlook: Short - term fluctuation [33]. 3.2.14 Plastic - Viewpoint: Stimulated by petrochemical news, the plastic price rebounded in the afternoon. - Main Logic: The news of plant maintenance boosts the price, but the actual impact is limited. The oil price fluctuates in the short term, and the global crude oil inventory is under pressure. The macro - level still has capital games, and the plastic's own fundamentals are under pressure. - Outlook: Short - term fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand [31]. 3.2.15 Pure Benzene - Viewpoint: Disturbed by the anti - involution news in the petrochemical industry, the price rebounded from the intraday low. - Main Logic: The geopolitical situation is expected to ease, and the IEA has lowered the global demand growth forecast, putting pressure on the oil market. Pure benzene has performed stronger than the cost this week, mainly due to factors such as the expected reduction in coking and hydro - benzene production, downstream replenishment, and port inventory reduction. - Outlook: There is an expectation of a small inventory reduction in August. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the July import data next week [18]. 3.2.16 Styrene - Viewpoint: Disturbed by the anti - involution news in the petrochemical industry, the price rebounded from the intraday low. - Main Logic: The price has been fluctuating weakly recently. The positive factors include the slight improvement in the pure benzene market and the start of peak - season inventory replenishment by downstream industries. However, the negative factors are stronger, such as the new production capacity coming on stream and the limited peak - season demand. - Outlook: The main port inventory is sufficient, and the market is prone to price increases with volume decreases. The output is expected to increase slightly, and the rigid demand is stable, but the spot demand is weak, so the inventory will continue to accumulate [19]. 3.2.17 PVC - Viewpoint: Pressured by anti - dumping measures, the demand is affected, and PVC is cautiously bearish. - Main Logic: At the macro - level, the anti - involution expectation still exists. At the micro - level, the fundamentals are under pressure, with weak cost support. The production may decline slightly during the autumn maintenance, the downstream operating rate changes little, the export is under pressure due to anti - dumping measures, and the cost is moving down. - Outlook: The futures price is cautiously bearish due to the pressure on export expectations and weak cost support [35]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: The spot performance is good, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic. - Main Logic: At the macro - level, the anti - involution expectation still exists. At the micro - level, the fundamentals are improving marginally, with increased demand from alumina production and downstream replenishment. However, the export is average, and the increase in maintenance in Shandong may lead to a slight decline in the operating rate. Attention should be paid to the impact of poor chlorine sales on the caustic soda production. - Outlook: The downstream is still replenishing inventory, but attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in market sentiment [36]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the changes in different time - period spreads [38]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, reflecting the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the quantity of warehouse receipts [39]. - Inter - variety Spread: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG are given, showing the price differences between different varieties [41]. 3.4 Index Performance - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined slightly on August 20, 2025 [282]. - Energy Index: On August 20, 2025, the energy index had a daily decline of 0.02%, a 5 - day decline of 0.63%, a 1 - month decline of 4.94%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.71% [284].