蛋白粕高位盘整，等待田间巡查结果

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Oscillating Bullish | | Protein Meal | Oscillating | | Corn and Starch | Oscillating Bearish | | Hogs | Oscillating | | Natural Rubber | Oscillating Bullish | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillating Bullish | | Cotton | Oscillating Bullish | | Sugar | Oscillating Bearish in the long - term, Oscillating in the short - term | | Pulp | Oscillating | | Logs | Oscillating Bearish | [171] 2. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It assesses the current market conditions, influencing factors, and offers mid - term outlooks and trading strategies for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - View: Short - term focus on the effectiveness of the lower technical support. - Logic: Technical selling pressure led to drops in US soybeans and soybean oil on Tuesday. The market is waiting for the Fed Chair's speech, with the US dollar oscillating stronger and crude oil prices falling. US soybean growth is good, and the USDA August report anticipates a record - high yield. There are uncertainties in US soybean exports, and the demand for US soybean oil from biodiesel has decreased this year. Domestic soybean imports are expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak. Palm oil is in the production season, and there is a high probability of inventory accumulation. - Outlook: Oscillating bullish [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - View: The price is oscillating narrowly at a high level, waiting for the results of the field inspection. - Logic: Internationally, US soybean is expected to oscillate around 1050 cents. Domestically, there is a consensus on near - month inventory pressure and far - month supply shortage. Some oil mills will reduce their operating rates, and the import profit is rising. - Outlook: The basis may bottom out and rebound. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low levels. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - View: The sentiment is bearish, and spot and near - month prices are falling rapidly. - Logic: Domestic corn prices are generally falling. The supply of old - crop corn is tight, but the purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The new - crop corn production is normal, and foreign supply is abundant. - Outlook: Oscillating bearish in the short - term, with supply pressure easing after the new - crop harvest [7][8]. 3.1.4 Hogs - View: Stricter transportation policies have weakened the futures price. - Logic: In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in August has increased. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to increase. In the long - term, anti - involution policies may lead to capacity reduction. - Outlook: Oscillating. There is inventory pressure in the short - term, and the far - month prices may be affected by capacity reduction expectations [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - View: The weakening of commodity sentiment dragged down the rubber price. - Logic: Although the rubber price dropped due to weakening sentiment, it gradually recovered in the afternoon. The rubber is entering the seasonal rising period, and there are many speculative themes. The short - term supply may decrease, and the demand is rigid. - Outlook: Oscillating bullish in the short - term [11][12]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - View: Positive news supported the price rebound after the decline. - Logic: The BR price initially followed the market down but rebounded after the news of petrochemical industry reform. The price is mainly affected by natural rubber and the short - term tight supply of butadiene. - Outlook: The butadiene price may rise slightly, and the market may oscillate bullishly [13][14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - View: Supported by fundamentals, the cotton price corrected during the session but was relatively resistant to decline. - Logic: Affected by the overall commodity atmosphere, the cotton price corrected at night but rebounded during the day. The commercial inventory is low, and the demand is improving, but there are also factors restricting the price increase. - Outlook: Oscillating between 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - View: The increasing supply has put pressure on the sugar price. - Logic: In the international market, Brazil's sugar production is increasing. In the domestic market, the import volume in July reached a high level. The supply is increasing, but the downward space is limited in the short - term. - Outlook: Oscillating bearish in the long - term, oscillating between 5600 - 5900 yuan/ton in the short - term [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - View: The price change is small, moving within a range. - Logic: The pulp price continued to correct, and the spot price of softwood pulp declined. The supply and demand of wood pulp have both positive and negative factors. - Outlook: Oscillating. The price of hardwood pulp may drive the futures price, and the main contract is expected to move between 5100 - 5500 [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - View: Try to go long on far - month contracts at low prices. - Logic: The fundamentals of logs are marginally improving, with reduced arrival pressure and inventory depletion. However, there are also negative factors such as weak demand and delivery pressure. - Outlook: Oscillating between 790 - 840 [19][20]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [22][41][54]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report defines rating standards such as bullish, oscillating bullish, oscillating, oscillating bearish, and bearish, with a time - cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [171]. 3.4 Commodity Index On August 20, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined. The agricultural product index also declined, with a year - to - date increase of 2.94% [172][173][175].