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股指期货:反内卷政策再度催化股指期权:积极预期再度兑现,波动率抬升
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-21 00:45

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is "oscillating upward with a bias towards strength" [10] - The investment rating for stock index options is "oscillating" [11] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "oscillating downward with a bias towards weakness" [11] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures are catalyzed by anti - involution policies. The upward trend of the market continues, and it is recommended to hold long positions in IM contracts to enjoy the excess returns of the growth style [3][10] - Stock index options see the fulfillment of positive expectations and an increase in volatility. It is advisable to adopt bull spread and short - volatility strategies [4][11] - Treasury bond futures experience a resurgence of risk appetite. The long - end of the bond market is significantly disturbed, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities for the yield curve to steepen and long - end arbitrage [5][11][12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and closed higher, standing firmly at a ten - year high with trading volume slightly shrinking to 2.44 trillion yuan. The growth style was prominent. Affected by the overnight slump in US tech stocks, A - shares opened lower but became an opportunity for portfolio adjustment. Anti - involution news catalyzed the oil and petrochemical industry, and the index accelerated its upward movement with the discount further narrowing. It is recommended to hold long positions in IM contracts [3][10] Stock Index Options - The underlying assets first declined and then rose. The option market turnover increased in the afternoon. Volatility decreased in the morning and increased in the afternoon. It is recommended to build short - volatility positions in batches and maintain a positive directional exposure [4][11] Treasury Bond Futures - The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed lower again. The decline was mainly due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. The long - end of the bond market was more disturbed, and the short - end performed relatively well with the curve steepening. It is recommended to pay attention to curve - steepening opportunities and long - end arbitrage [5][11][12] 2. Economic Calendar - On August 20, 2025, China's one - year loan prime rate (LPR) in August remained at 3%. The preliminary value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in August is expected to be 49.5, and Japan's national CPI annual rate in July is expected to be 3.1% [13] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The upcoming military parade will feature domestically - produced active - service main battle equipment, including new fourth - generation equipment, unmanned intelligent and anti - unmanned equipment, and advanced strategic weapons, demonstrating the military's combat capabilities [13] - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues and expected to meet again before November [14] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not elaborated in the summary requirements [15][19][31]