Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating, with most varieties expected to fluctuate, indicating that the market trend is uncertain in the short - term, and the expected price change is within plus or minus one standard deviation [102]. Core Viewpoints - The black building materials market is currently affected by factors such as the approaching peak - off - peak season transition, limited pre - event production restrictions, and inventory pressure. The overall market is in a state of shock, and the follow - up needs to focus on production restrictions and terminal demand [1][2][5]. - The price of steel products is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the supply and demand of steel products will be affected around the military parade. The specific situation of blast furnace production restrictions needs to be tracked [7]. - The iron ore market has stable supply and inventory, and the demand is at a high level. The negative driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate [2][7]. - The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. Although the profit of electric furnaces decreases due to the pressure on the price of finished products, the resources are still relatively tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. - The coking coal market has short - term supply and demand tightness under supply disturbances, and the short - term disk still has support [2][11]. - The glass market has weak fundamentals, and the cost support is strengthened by the rise in coal prices. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and the price may decline in the long - term [2][13]. - The soda ash market has an oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term and decline in the long - term to promote capacity reduction [2][15]. - The supply pressure of manganese silicon increases, and the price may decline in the long - term; the short - term price of ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate, but there are hidden concerns in the long - term fundamentals [2]. Summary by Variety Steel - Core Logic: Low - price transactions are the main form, and the overall spot trading of steel products is average. Last week, steel mills had both resumption and maintenance, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed little. Rebar inventory increased significantly, and the demand continued to decline. The export orders of hot - rolled coils improved, and the domestic demand was resilient, with the inventory accumulation slowing down. The inventory of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled coils increased, and the apparent demand of the five major steel products declined and the inventory accumulated, showing off - peak season characteristics [7]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of steel products are marginally weakening in the off - peak season. The supply and demand will be affected around the military parade. The blast furnace production restriction situation needs to be tracked. The disk may fluctuate more violently, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. The follow - up should focus on the production restriction of steel mills and terminal demand [7]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: The port trading volume increased. The overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports rebounded slightly, slightly higher than the same period last year. The total supply is relatively stable. The small - sample molten iron output remained stable, and the daily consumption of imported sinter decreased slightly. The iron ore ports accumulated inventory, the number of berthed ships decreased, and steel mills replenished inventory slightly [7]. - Outlook: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, the supply and inventory are stable, and the negative driving force of the fundamentals is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in the future [7]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The arrival volume of scrap steel increased slightly week - on - week. The daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces and blast furnaces increased, and the total daily consumption increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available days of inventory decreased to a relatively low level. After the price cut by Shagang, the scrap steel prices in East China and other places followed the decline, while the prices in Hebei increased slightly [9]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. Although the profit of electric furnaces decreases due to the pressure on the price of finished products, the resources are still relatively tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Coke - Core Logic: In the futures market, the market was calm and the disk fluctuated. In the spot market, the price remained stable. After the sixth round of price increase, the overall profit of coking enterprises turned positive, and the production increased slightly. The downstream steel mills had good profits and high production enthusiasm. The trading enthusiasm of traders decreased, and the steel mill arrivals improved. The upstream coking enterprises continued to reduce inventory, and the overall inventory pressure was not significant [10]. - Outlook: The expectation of production restrictions on coke is strong before the military parade, and the short - term supply is tight. The seventh round of price increase still needs time to be implemented. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the impact of production restriction policies on coking and steel enterprises [10]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Some coal mines in the production area resumed production, but some mine points still had limited production. The short - term supply disturbance of coal mines will continue. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remained above 1,000 vehicles. The demand for coking coal is strong, and the downstream purchases on demand. Some coal mines have accumulated inventory, but there is no obvious inventory pressure due to a large number of pre - sold orders [2][11]. - Outlook: The supply disturbance continues, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in supply before the military parade. The short - term fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term disk still has support [11]. Glass - Core Logic: After the decline in the glass disk, the sentiment in the spot market declined. The supply is expected to remain stable, and the upstream inventory has increased slightly. The increase in coal prices has strengthened the cost support, but the fundamentals are still weak [2][13]. - Outlook: The real - world demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong. After the transaction of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still has a premium. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline after returning to fundamental trading [13]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The oversupply pattern of soda ash has not changed. The spot trading is still weak after the increase in the disk. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and the demand is relatively stable. The downstream replenishment sentiment is weak [2][15]. - Outlook: The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and the price center will continue to decline in the long - term to promote capacity reduction [15]. Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: The terminal demand is weak, and the price of manganese silicon futures opened low and moved low. The raw material procurement by manufacturers before the military parade is almost over, the port trading atmosphere has cooled down, and the port ore price has declined slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand will decline slightly during the military parade [2]. - Outlook: The current inventory pressure is controllable, and the short - term price decline space is limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship may become looser, and the price may decline [2]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The terminal demand is weak, and the ferrosilicon futures opened with a gap down and then consolidated. The production of ferrosilicon is accelerating, and the demand for steelmaking will decline slightly during the military parade. The magnesium market has weak high - price transaction follow - up [2][17]. - Outlook: The current inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term price decline space is limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the price center will decline [17].
供需平稳，价格震荡运
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-21 00:45