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中信期货晨报:国内商品期货多数下跌,黑色系领跌-20250821
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-21 00:45
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The high - interest - rate environment affects consumption, and inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. - Domestic: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with weakening consumption and investment and declining credit demand. Exports provided support in July, but the pressure on exports may gradually emerge from September. - Asset Outlook: At the end of August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption. The global central bank summit in late August is also a window for speculating on Fed policies. As the economic growth slowdown pressure rises, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, and there are differences in CPI and PPI expectations. Inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing Fed decisions [8]. - Domestic Macro: In July, the domestic economic growth rate slowed down. Exports provided support, but the "rush to import" from the US decreased in late July. Exports may remain resilient in August but face pressure from September [8]. - Asset Views: In late August, the market enters a verification period and a policy - preview window. With the economic slowdown, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock Index Futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - Stock Index Options: An offensive strategy can be deployed, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market is still under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season is turning to the off - season, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel Products: Affected by production - restriction news, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Iron Ore: The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Coke: With continuous production - restriction expectations, the seventh round of price increases has started, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the extension of the tariff suspension between China and the US [9]. - Aluminum Oxide: The spot is weakly stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [9]. - Aluminum: The social inventory has slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The inventory - accumulation pressure continues, and it is expected to fluctuate downwards [11]. - LPG: The cracking spread has stabilized, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - Asphalt: The price at 3500 may turn from support to pressure, and it is expected to decline [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Hogs: Affected by stricter transportation policies, the price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - Rubber: It is expected to fluctuate upwards, mainly in a range - bound pattern [11]. - Pulp: The price of coniferous wood pulp in US dollars has not increased, and it is expected to fluctuate [11].