中原期货晨会纪要-20250821

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market shows complex trends across various sectors including agriculture, energy - chemical, industrial metals, and options - finance. Different factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events influence the prices and trading strategies of different products [7][11][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the exemption of personal income tax on child - rearing subsidies starting from January 1, 2025 [7]. - China's new - period LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.5%, in line with market expectations [7]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes revealed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were disagreements on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [7]. - Trump called on Fed理事Cook to resign, increasing pressure on the Fed. The FHFA director accused Cook of mortgage fraud [8]. - President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of stability, development, ecology, and border - strengthening in Tibet and the construction of major projects [8]. - Premier Li Qiang stressed promoting the upgrading of the biomedical industry [8]. - The Ministry of Commerce held a round - table meeting with foreign - funded enterprises in the Pearl River Delta [8]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration plans to introduce the "Administrative Measures for Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans" to boost industrial transformation [9]. - In July, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.35, down 4.9% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year, with inventory below the warning line but above the reasonable range [9]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: On August 20, the sugar main contract closed at 5676 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range oscillation. Brazil's production decline provided support, but concentrated imports pressured the spot market. The domestic inventory pressure is light, but the de - stocking process is slow. The price is expected to oscillate, with key support at 5650 yuan [11]. - Corn: On August 20, the corn main contract closed at 2170 yuan/ton, breaking through the previous support at 2180 yuan. New grain supply pressure and import increases affected the market. Feed consumption was suppressed, but deep - processing profits improved. A bearish operation is recommended, with new support at around 2140 yuan [11]. - Live Pigs: The national live - pig price was stable. Supply - side resistance to price drops and improved demand due to cooler weather led to a stable - to - rising price in the short - term. However, the futures market showed a bearish trend [11]. - Eggs: The national egg spot price was stable. High egg - laying hen inventory, large cold - storage stocks, and increased small - sized egg supply weakened the price increase momentum. A strategy of shorting on rebounds and inter - month arbitrage is recommended [11]. - Cotton: The international cotton market has sufficient supply. In the domestic market, the approaching new - flower listing may increase supply, while the demand in the cotton yarn market is improving. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended as the price showed a weak oscillation [11][13]. 2.2 Energy - Chemical Products - Urea: The domestic urea price increased significantly, but downstream follow - up enthusiasm weakened. The industry's daily output was 19.52 tons, and inventories were rising. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, but the impact of environmental policies and high finished - product inventory need to be monitored. Pay attention to India's tender and export policies [15]. - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda in Shandong showed an upward trend. With the approaching peak demand season, a bullish strategy on dips for the 2511 contract is recommended [15]. - Coking Coal: The spot prices of coking coal and coke showed some fluctuations. The steel - coke game continued, and the high iron - water output provided support. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate [16]. 2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The copper price continued to oscillate due to a lack of new macro - drivers and increased inventory. The aluminum price is expected to adjust at a high level, waiting for the demand performance in the peak season [18][20]. - Alumina: The supply of alumina increased, and the demand was relatively stable. The spot price was weak, and the 2601 contract was running weakly. Attention should be paid to bauxite supply disruptions [20]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The spot market trading was average, and inventory data was mixed. Steel prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [20]. - Ferroalloys: The prices of ferroalloys showed a downward trend with a slowdown in decline. The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations, and risk control is recommended for hedging and speculation [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate dropped sharply, breaking through the key support level. Although cost support increased, supply concerns were alleviated. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, focusing on the implementation of production - cut policies in Jiangxi [20][22]. 2.4 Options - Finance - Options: On August 20, the A - share market rose, and the trading volume of stock - index options increased. Different options showed various changes in PCR and implied volatility. Trend investors can focus on inter - variety arbitrage, and volatility investors can short volatility [24]. - Stock Indices: The A - share market showed a volatile trend. With the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10 - year high, investors' sentiment fluctuated. Different investment strategies are recommended for different types of investors, and a bullish view on the market is maintained [25][26][27].