软商品日报：国际糖区间波动，短期保持震荡-20250821

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - For sugar, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production, while summer cold - drink consumption boosts seasonal demand. Sugar imports have recently increased significantly due to the expanding price difference between domestic and foreign markets, but the annual import volume is expected to remain within the expected range [1] - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage. The growth progress is earlier than usual. High - temperature and low - precipitation conditions in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August may increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. The decreasing commercial inventory and the upcoming peak season for cotton textile support cotton prices [1] Data Summary Price Data - Foreign Futures Prices: On August 18 - 19, 2025, the price of US sugar rose from $16.24 to $16.3, a 0.37% increase; the price of US cotton fell from $67.84 to $67.53, a 0.46% decrease [3] - Spot Prices: From August 18 to 19, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.06%, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged [3] Spread Data - Sugar Spreads: From August 18 to 19, 2025, SR01 - 05 decreased by 8.70%, SR05 - 09 decreased by 11.82%, SR09 - 01 decreased by 14.06%, and the basis of sugar contracts all increased to varying degrees [3] - Cotton Spreads: From August 18 to 19, 2025, CF01 - 05 decreased by 50.00%, CF05 - 09 increased by 1.96%, CF09 - 01 decreased by 5.08%, and the basis of cotton contracts all increased to varying degrees [3] Import - Related Data - Import Price: From August 18 to 19, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA increased by 0.19% [3] - Profit Space: From August 18 to 19, 2025, the sugar import profit remained unchanged [3] Option Data - For sugar option SR601C5700, the implied volatility is 0.083, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures SR601 is 6.19; for SR601P5700, the implied volatility is 0.0844. For cotton option CF601C14000, the implied volatility is 0.1017, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures CF601 is 5.61; for CF601P14000, the implied volatility is 0.1056 [3] Inventory Data - From August 18 to 19, 2025, the number of sugar inventory warrants decreased by 2.63%, and the number of cotton inventory warrants decreased by 2.14% [3] Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple exchanges and associations [8]