中泰期货晨会纪要-20250821

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides trend judgments and trading strategies for various futures products based on fundamental and quantitative indicators. It analyzes the market conditions of different sectors, including macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agriculture, and energy - chemical industries, and offers corresponding investment suggestions. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Information - China's new LPR remains unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1 - year at 3.0% and the 5 - year and above at 3.5% [10] - The Fed's July meeting minutes show that almost all policymakers support not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There are differences among officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [10] - Multiple rural banks in Zhejiang, Guizhou, Jilin, etc., have lowered deposit rates, while many banks have launched large - value certificates of deposit with an annual interest rate of over 2% [10] - The US federal budget deficit is expected to reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, nearly $1 trillion higher than the CBO's January forecast [11] 2. Macro Finance 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to consider long - term buying on dips. The A - share market rebounded strongly on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high. The semiconductor industry chain was strong, and sectors such as GPU, servers, and liquor led the rise [13] 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The curve steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term cycle. The money market initially tightened and then eased. The stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious, and the long - end yield was strongly suppressed by the asset comparison logic [14] 3. Black Commodities 3.1 Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Policy tone is milder. Seasonal demand is weak, but the medium - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Steel mill profits are stable, and prices are expected to fluctuate. The futures price of rebar is affected by the rumored large - scale warehouse receipts [15][16][17] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may enter a high - level oscillation stage. Supply may be tight in the short term, but there is also downward pressure from factors such as the possible decline in steel mill iron - water production and sufficient imported Mongolian coal supply [17][18] 3.3 Ferroalloys - After the sharp decline in the double - silicon futures price, the short - term fundamentals have no rebound logic. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and consider taking profits on dips if there is a sharp decline [19] 4. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 4.1 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to rebound, and it is advisable to buy on dips because of downstream replenishment, the approaching peak season, and the expected Fed interest - rate cut. Alumina prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to sell on rallies due to supply surplus [21][22] 4.2 Zinc - Social zinc inventories are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. Zinc prices will oscillate downward as the macro - impact fades and the overseas inventory decline slows down [23] 4.3 Lithium Carbonate - Prices are expected to rise first and then fall. There is a short - term supply gap, but the fourth - quarter fundamentals will loosen, and the global lithium resource balance sheet is in surplus [24] 4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate as the polysilicon复产 supports de - stocking. Polysilicon is mainly affected by policy progress, with wide - range oscillations [25][27] 5. Agricultural Products 5.1 Cotton - In the long - term, it is advisable to sell on rallies due to weak downstream demand and future production increase pressure. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to macro and supply - demand changes [29][30] 5.2 Sugar - Domestic sugar inventory is low, but the expected increase in processed sugar restricts prices. Pay attention to the short - covering opportunity during the Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking period [32] 5.3 Eggs - The supply pressure is high, and the futures contract is at a premium. It is recommended to reduce short positions gradually and be cautious about bottom - fishing [33] 5.4 Apples - The strategy is to conduct light - position positive spreads due to rainfall in the western production area [34] 5.5 Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see as the spot market in Hebei is stable and weak, and the futures price oscillates widely [36] 5.6 Pigs - The short - term spot price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is recommended to be cautiously short on near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [37][38] 6. Energy - Chemical Industry 6.1 Crude Oil - EIA inventory reduction is short - term positive. In the long - term, the market may turn to a supply - surplus situation. It is advisable to try shorting on rallies [39] 6.2 Fuel Oil - The price follows the trend of crude oil. The market is affected by factors such as the peak power - generation season in the Middle East, weak shipping, and inventory accumulation [39] 6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and are expected to oscillate weakly. However, the expectation of eliminating backward capacity in the petrochemical industry may drive up prices. It is recommended to close previous short positions and wait and see [39][40] 6.4 Rubber - There is no obvious short - term contradiction in the fundamentals. It is advisable to short on dips with a stop - loss and be cautious about chasing high prices [42] 6.5 Methanol - The port inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see due to the impact of the expectation of eliminating backward capacity in the petrochemical industry [43] 6.6 Caustic Soda - The spot price is stable, and the futures price has risen significantly. It is advisable for long - positions to take profits at an appropriate time [44] 6.7 Asphalt - The price follows the trend of crude oil. The asphalt market is in the off - season, with slow inventory reduction [45] 6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - It is advisable to try going long on dips. The PX supply - demand pattern is in tight balance, the PTA supply is tight, and the terminal demand shows signs of recovery [46][47] 6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price is expected to decline as the Russia - Ukraine issue eases. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the medium - term [48] 6.10 Pulp - The coniferous pulp market is weak. It is recommended to observe whether the port de - stocking continues and whether the spot trading improves [49] 6.11 Logs - The fundamentals are oscillating. It is recommended to observe and consider hedging at high prices according to the spot situation [50] 6.12 Urea - The domestic demand is weak, and the market follows a wide - range oscillation pattern. Pay attention to the changes in China's urea export volume [50]